Match report →
Poland – Ukraine0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Poland
1.61
Total xG
2.78
Ukraine
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
Key factors
- Critical absence of Ukraine's entire starting eleven goal threat, with only 0% of usual production available
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 46% for Poland
- According to Advanced Stats, Ukraine shows consistent goal production averaging 1.0 goals per game
Risks
- Limited data available for Poland, particularly concerning season statistics and current form
- Ukraine's unconventional tactics in their last game, with 1% possession but 6 shots on target, might be difficult to assess
All probabilities
Result
Poland46%
Draw28%
Ukraine26%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Poland or draw74%
Ukraine or draw54%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
Lineups
Poland 3-4-3 · Ukraine 4-2-3-1
Poland
- 12 M. Bulka
- 4 T. Kędziora
- 3 P. Wisniewski
- 14 J. Kiwior
- 15 A. Pyrka
- 16 J. Piotrowski
- 10 P. Zieliński
- 21 N. Zalewski
- 20 S. Szymański
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 17 O. Pietuszewski
Ukraine
- 12 A. Trubin
- 4 O. Romanchuk
- 2 E. Sarapiy
- 22 M. Matviyenko
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 14 E. Nazaryna
- 18 O. Ocheretko
- 7 A. Yarmolenko
- 15 V. Tsygankov
- 17 H. Sudakov
- 9 R. Yaremchuk
Substitutes
- 1 K. Grabara
- 7 J. Kamiński
- 25 K. Potulski
- 22 M. Kochalski
- 11 K. Świderski
- 18 F. Rózga
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 8 B. Kapustka
- 2 N. Wojtuszek
- 6 B. Slisz
- 13 M. Żukowski
- 23 K. Kozłowski
- 24 K. Czubak
- 26 O. Wójcik
- 19 D. Ihnatenko
- 23 R. Neshcheret
- 3 T. Mykhavko
- 21 M. Ponomarenko
- 6 V. Brazhko
- 10 M. Shaparenko
- 11 A. Dovbyk
- 24 A. Bondarenko
- 5 V. Bondar
- 1 H. Ermakov
- 20 O. Nazarenko
- 25 H. Synchuk
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