Friendly International

Poland - Nigeria

06/03/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Poland
1.8
Total xG
3.0
Nigeria
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
POLNIG

Poland

Standings advantage (pos 36 vs 45, 9 places gap)
+0.08
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Full strength squad available

Nigeria

Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+0.51
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 45 vs 36, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.37
+0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nigeria: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 2
    Nigeria: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: A home win for Poland is calculated with 48% probability, compared to 25% for Nigeria
  • Current Form: Nigeria shows better form with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 games, compared to Poland's 1 loss in their last match
  • Tactical approach: Nigeria is possession-dominant with an average of 65% possession and 3 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time for Poland with only 3 days since their last match
  • Poland recorded an average of only 2.0 shots on target in their last game, indicating few attempts
  • Limited data availability regarding Poland's season statistics, which complicates the overall assessment
Overview

Poland hosts Nigeria in a Friendly International match at Stadion Narodowy on June 3, 2026, 6:45 PM

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Poland's last recorded match result was a loss (L 0-2 against Ukraine)

Nigeria's form over their last five games is DLWDW

Nigeria recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in this period

Statistics

Poland has scored 0 goals and conceded 2 goals this season

Nigeria averaged 2.0 goals scored per game and 1.0 goal conceded per game in 3 games

Nigeria kept 1 clean sheet this season and had both teams score in 2 matches

Nigeria averaged 2.0 goals scored away and 1.5 goals conceded away

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head encounters between Poland and Nigeria available in the dataset

Key Players

For Poland, Jan Bednarek stands out with an average rating of 7.36 in the last 5 games

Robert Lewandowski (1 goal in last 5 games) and Sebastian Szymanski (1 goal in last 5 games) also show rising form

For Nigeria, Akor Adams shows rising form with 2 goals in his last 5 games and a rating of 6.96

Moses Simon (2 season goals) and Emmanuel Fernandez (1 season goal) are also notable

Goalkeepers

Kamil Grabara is the goalkeeper for Poland

Maduka Okoye (Nigeria) has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Poland has not recorded any clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will take place at Stadion Narodowy, which has a grass surface

Poland has conceded 2 goals in home matches so far

Nigeria has scored 4 goals and conceded 3 goals in away matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.