Match report →
Poland – Nigeria2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Poland
1.77
Total xG
3.01
Nigeria
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Poland | Nigeria |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 45 vs 36, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 36 vs 45, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: A home win for Poland is calculated with 48% probability, compared to 25% for Nigeria
- Current Form: Nigeria shows better form with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 games, compared to Poland's 1 loss in their last match
- Tactical approach: Nigeria is possession-dominant with an average of 65% possession and 3 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risks
- Short recovery time for Poland with only 3 days since their last match
- Poland recorded an average of only 2.0 shots on target in their last game, indicating few attempts
- Limited data availability regarding Poland's season statistics, which complicates the overall assessment
All probabilities
Result
Poland48%
Draw26%
Nigeria26%
Double chance
Poland or draw75%
Nigeria or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nigeria: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Nigeria: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)
Lineups
Poland 3-4-3 · Nigeria 4-4-2
Poland
- 1 K. Grabara
- 3 P. Wisniewski
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 25 K. Potulski
- 7 J. Kamiński
- 6 B. Slisz
- 10 P. Zieliński
- 21 N. Zalewski
- 20 S. Szymański
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 11 K. Świderski
Nigeria
- 23 M. Okoye
- 2 A. Bewene
- 5 I. Ogbu
- 18 E. Fernandez
- 13 S. Bruno Onyemaechi
- 15 M. Simon
- 8 O. Frank
- 4 O. Ndidi
- 12 T. Nadi
- 22 A. Adams
- 9 T. Moffi
Substitutes
- 15 A. Pyrka
- 22 M. Kochalski
- 18 F. Rózga
- 14 J. Kiwior
- 17 O. Pietuszewski
- 4 T. Kędziora
- 8 B. Kapustka
- 2 N. Wojtuszek
- 16 J. Piotrowski
- 19 M. Skóraś
- 12 M. Bulka
- 13 M. Żukowski
- 23 K. Kozłowski
- 24 K. Czubak
- 26 O. Wójcik
- 21 C. Bassey
- 7 P. Otele
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 16 A. Okonkwo
- 20 R. Nwadike
- 14 R. Durosinmi
- 3 Z. Sanusi
- 1 F. Uzoho
- 10 F. Dele-Bashiru
- 19 E. Onuachu
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