Friendly International
Luxembourg - Italy
06/03/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.7
1.3
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
29%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- The mathematical prediction slightly favors Luxembourg with a home win probability of 40% compared to Italy (31%)
- Italy is playing with a significantly altered and experimental starting lineup
- Several important Italian offensive players are out due to injury or not in the starting XI
Risk Factors
- Comprehensive data on season statistics, team form, and head-to-head matches is not available
- Luxembourg has three absences: B. Djomeni Madjo, E. Dzogovic, and Y. Borges Sanches
- Italy has a long list of absences, including M. Retegui, M. Zaccagni, R. Orsolini, M. Kean, N. Cambiaghi, and S. Tonali (doubtful)
Overview
Luxembourg hosts Italy in a Friendly International match at Stade Josy Barthel on June 3, 2026, 8:45 PM
The mathematical prediction gives Luxembourg a slight favorite role for this match with a home win probability of 40%
Key Players
For Luxembourg, key players include:
Leandro Barreiro (Midfielder) with 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 games (388 minutes), averaging a rating of 7.02
Mathias Olesen (Midfielder) with 1 goal in 4 games (353 minutes), averaging a rating of 7.01
Danel Sinani (Midfielder) with an average rating of 6.92 in 4 games (234 minutes)
For Italy, starting players include:
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Goalkeeper) with an average rating of 6.84 in 3 games (276 minutes)
Pio Esposito (Attacker) with 1 goal in 4 games (189 minutes), averaging a rating of 6.76
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper for Luxembourg, Anthony Moris, achieved an average rating of 7.12 in his last 5 games over 458 minutes
For Italy, Gianluigi Donnarumma is in goal, showing an average rating of 6.84 in his last 3 games over 276 minutes