Friendly International06/03/2026, 06:45 PM

Luxembourg – Italy0 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Luxembourg

1.45

Total xG

2.70

Italy

1.26

Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

Key factors

The mathematical prediction slightly favors Luxembourg with a home win probability of 40% compared to Italy (31%)
Italy is playing with a significantly altered and experimental starting lineup
Several important Italian offensive players are out due to injury or not in the starting XI

Risks

Comprehensive data on season statistics, team form, and head-to-head matches is not available
Luxembourg has three absences: B. Djomeni Madjo, E. Dzogovic, and Y. Borges Sanches
Italy has a long list of absences, including M. Retegui, M. Zaccagni, R. Orsolini, M. Kean, N. Cambiaghi, and S. Tonali (doubtful)

All probabilities

Result

Luxembourg40%

Draw29%

Italy31%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw69%

Italy or draw60%

No draw71%

Goals

Over 1.577%

Under 1.523%

Over 2.551%

Under 2.549%

Over 3.529%

Under 3.571%

Both teams score

Yes56%

No44%

Most likely scores

1:1

14%

2:1

1:2

2:0

2:2

0:1

Final score

Lineups

Luxembourg 4-5-1 · Italy 4-3-3

Luxembourg

1 A. Moris
18 L. Jans
2 S. Korac
13 D. Carlson
17 M. Gonçalves Pinto
15 V. Thill
8 C. Martins Pereira
19 M. Olesen
6 J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
7 F. Bohnert
10 D. Sinani

Italy

1 G. Donnarumma
22 C. Favasuli
15 P. Comuzzo
4 F. Cristian Chiarodia
3 D. Bartesaghi
21 N. Pisilli
5 L. Lipani
10 C. Ndour
7 L. Cherubini
9 F. Esposito
11 L. Koleosho

Substitutes

12 T. Pereira Cardoso
3 E. Mahmutovic
5 V. Selimovic
11 E. Muratovic
14 E. Veiga
23 L. Fox
9 A. Curci
21 S. Thill
22 E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
16 F. Miguel
20 H. Kadamani
4 D. Duarte

6 F. Mane
24 H. Ahanor
25 N. Fortini
17 S. Fini
18 J. Ekhator
8 F. Camarda
2 M. Palestra
14 T. Berti
20 M. Dagasso
23 L. Palmisani
12 G. Daffara
19 S. Inacio
13 L. Reggiani
16 G. Faticanti

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.

Create Account →