La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Club
02/28/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.8
1.4
1:1
13%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
28%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Form Disparity: Athletic Club arrives in top form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches, while Rayo Vallecano has only won once in the same period
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Athletic Club has won all of the last five meetings against Rayo Vallecano, with a goal difference of 11-2
- Clash of Strengths: The match pits Athletic's potent recent attack (2.0 goals per game recently) against Rayo Vallecano's solid home defense (only 0.75 goals conceded per game)
Risk Factors
- Athletic's Away Frailty: Despite their good form, Athletic Club is defensively vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Athletic's Injury Concerns: The visitors are missing several players, most notably key attacker Nico Williams (4 goals, 2 assists), which could weaken their offensive capabilities
- Rayo's Goal Scoring Issues: Rayo Vallecano has one of the league's less productive attacks, averaging just 0.92 goals per game and failing to score in 10 of 24 matches
Overview
Rayo Vallecano, in 15th place with 26 points, hosts Athletic Club, 8th with 34 points, at the Estadio de Vallecas
The La Liga match will take place on February 28, 2026, at 2:00 PM
The hosts are fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while the visitors aim to solidify their European ambitions
Prediction models expect a close game, with a slight edge for the away team (37% win probability)
Form
Rayo Vallecano (Form: LLLWD)
In the last 5 games, there has been 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Their form has shown a slight improvement recently with a win and a draw
Athletic Club (Form: WWLWW)
With 4 wins from the last 5 games, the team is in excellent form
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Rayo Vallecano scores an average of just 0.92 goals at home but is very solid defensively, conceding only 0.75 goals per home game
Athletic Club is stronger offensively away (1.2 goals per game) but vulnerable in defense (2.0 goals conceded per game)
Rayo has failed to score in 10 of their 24 league games this season
For Athletic, 12 of their 25 games have ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
Athletic Club has won all of the last 5 head-to-head encounters
The goal difference from these matches is 11-2 in favor of Athletic
The last meeting ended in a 1-0 victory for Athletic Club
Recent history clearly favors the away team
Key Players
Jorge de Frutos is Rayo Vallecano's top scorer with 7 goals this season
Ălvaro GarcĂa and Isi PalazĂłn are key offensive players with a combined 6 goals and 7 assists
For Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta is a central figure in attack with 6 goals
Iñaki Williams has been in good form recently with 1 goal and 2 assists
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta provides stability in midfield and has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper, Augusto Batalla, has helped the team keep 7 clean sheets this season
Unai SimĂłn in goal for Athletic Club has managed 5 clean sheets in the league so far with his team
Influences
Rayo Vallecano's home advantage is primarily built on a strong defense, which concedes an average of only 0.75 goals at the Estadio de Vallecas
In the last five home games, there was an average of 2.4 goals per match
The probability of both teams scoring in recent matches at the stadium was 60%