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La Liga

Real Betis - Sevilla

03/01/2026, 05:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Real Betis
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Sevilla
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RBSEV

Real Betis

Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.21
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.05

Sevilla

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Rubén Vargas not in starting XI (3 goals, 4 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 46% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Sevilla's attack is severely weakened by absences, with only 47% of their seasonal goalscorers available
  • Strong contrast in home and away strength: Real Betis is very stable at home (avg 0.93 goals conceded), while Sevilla is defensively vulnerable away (avg 1.82 goals conceded)
  • The mathematical analysis clearly favors Real Betis with a 45% win probability, supported by a prediction of 1.57 expected goals for the home team
Risk Factors
  • Real Betis's recent offensive output is declining, with 1.2 goals per game being below their season average of 1.6
  • Although Sevilla is missing many key players, their overall recent form is solid with only one loss in the last five games
Overview

In the city derby, Real Betis (5th place, 42 points) hosts rivals Sevilla (12th place, 29 points)

The La Liga match will take place on March 1, 2026, at 6:30 PM at the Estadio OlĂ­mpico de Sevilla

Real Betis enters the match as favorites, fighting for European spots, while Sevilla is in the mid-table

Form

Real Betis Form: WLWWD

In their last five games, Betis has secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and suffered 1 loss

Sevilla Form: WLDDW

Sevilla has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Both teams are showing solid but not outstanding form

Statistics

Real Betis scores an average of 1.6 goals per game, while Sevilla averages 1.28 goals

Betis is particularly strong at home, conceding an average of just 0.93 goals

Sevilla's defense is vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.82 goals per game on the road

In the last 5 games at the Estadio OlĂ­mpico de Sevilla, there has been an average of 3.0 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Real Betis has the edge with 2 wins to 1 loss and 2 draws

The goal difference is 6:4 in favor of Real Betis

Real Betis won the last meeting 2:0

Key Players

Cucho HernĂĄndez is a key factor in Betis's attack with 8 season goals

Antony has contributed 6 goals and 5 assists

Pablo Fornals is also a central figure in midfield with 6 goals and 4 assists

For Sevilla, Akor Adams is the most dangerous attacker with 6 goals and 4 assists

Djibril Sow has scored 4 goals this season

Gabriel Suazo is a key player in defense with a high season rating of 6.96

Goalkeepers

In goal for Real Betis is Álvaro Valles, who has been part of the team's 8 clean sheets this season

Odysseas Vlachodimos is Sevilla's goalkeeper and has been involved in 5 clean sheets

Statistically, the defense in front of Valles has had a more stable season so far

Influences

Real Betis enjoys a clear home advantage, reflected in their 1.64 goals scored versus only 0.93 goals conceded per home game

The stadium's statistics suggest a high-scoring match, with an average of 3.0 goals in recent games

Both teams scored in 60% of the last matches at the Estadio OlĂ­mpico de Sevilla

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