Friendly International

Bolivia - Algeria

06/11/2026, 12:00 AM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Bolivia
0.8
Total xG
3.0
Algeria
2.2
Most Likely Scores

0:2

12%

1:1

10%

1:2

10%

0:3

9%

1:3

7%
What influences the xG?
BOLALG

Bolivia

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-1.22
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.72
Standings disadvantage (pos 77 vs 38, 39 places gap)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Fernando Nava on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Algeria

Attack strength (2x league average)
+1.58
Defensive strength (0.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-1.11
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.92
Standings advantage (pos 38 vs 77, 39 places gap)
+0.16
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Houssem Aouar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Amine Gouiri on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bolivia with Lucas Dionis Macazaga Ojopi: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Algeria with Ibrahim Maza: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Algeria: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Bolivia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

11%

Draw

20%

Away Win

69%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

31%

Away or Draw

89%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Critical Squad Impact: Bolivia has only 0% of its usual goal threat available without Fernando Nava (1G/1A)
  • Form Disparity: Algeria shows significantly better form (WWWDW) than Bolivia (DLWLL)
  • Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis predicts an away win with a probability of 69%
Risk Factors
  • Limited Data: xG values are missing for 4 of Bolivia's last 5 games
  • Algeria's Offensive Efficiency: Averaged 3.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, despite a strong scoring record
Overview

Bolivia hosts Algeria at the Estadio Hernando Siles for an International Friendly. The match will take place on June 11, 2026, 1:00 AM. This is an opportunity for both teams to test their form and refine tactics.

Form

Bolivia's current form (DLWLL) shows 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches. Most recently, they suffered a 0-4 loss against Scotland and a 1-2 loss against Iraq. Algeria's form (WWWDW) is significantly better with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five games. They recently secured a 1-0 win against Netherlands and a 0-0 draw against Uruguay. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Bolivia averages 0.94 goals scored per game and concedes 1.94 goals. In home games, they are defensively more stable with an average of 0.5 goals conceded, but also score only 0.93 home goals. Algeria shows strong offensive performance this season with an average of 2.4 goals per game and concedes only 0.8 goals. Away from home, they score an average of 2.5 goals and concede 0.5 goals. At the venue, the last 4 games averaged 3.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 1 of 4 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 of 4 matches.

Head-to-Head

There has been only one direct encounter between these two teams so far. Algeria won this match 3-2 on March 22, 2024. The historical record therefore shows Algeria's dominance in this short history.

Key Players

For Bolivia, Miguelito with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games (avg rating 7.21) and Moises Paniagua with 1 goal (avg rating 6.83) show rising form. Roberto Fernández is also notable with a rising form and a rating of 6.54. For Algeria, Nabil Bentaleb is an important midfielder with an average rating of 7.32 and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Aïssa Mandi shows a rising form with an average rating of 7.16, and Ibrahim Maza provided 1 assist in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.88. Not selected are Houssem Aouar (1 goal, 1 assist) and Amine Gouiri (2 goals, 0 assists).

Goalkeepers

Carlos Lampe is expected in goal for Bolivia, while Oussama Benbout is set to start for Algeria. Bolivia recorded 6 clean sheets this season, while Algeria achieved 3 clean sheets.

Influences

Bolivia's home strength is evident in their defensive statistics, with only 0.5 goals conceded on average in home games. The Estadio Hernando Siles venue has seen an average of 3.0 goals in 4 matches, with an Over 2.5 rate of 75% and a BTTS rate of 25%. The playing surface is grass.

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