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Bolivia – Algeria0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Bolivia
0.79
Total xG
3.02
Algeria
2.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bolivia | Algeria |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2x league average) | +1.58 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −1.22 | |
| Defensive strength (0.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −1.11 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.92 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.72 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Standings advantage (pos 38 vs 77, 39 places gap) | +0.16 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 77 vs 38, 39 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Fernando Nava on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Houssem Aouar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Amine Gouiri on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 100% available) |
Key factors
- Critical Squad Impact: Bolivia has only 0% of its usual goal threat available without Fernando Nava (1G/1A)
- Form Disparity: Algeria shows significantly better form (WWWDW) than Bolivia (DLWLL)
- Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis predicts an away win with a probability of 69%
Risks
- Limited Data: xG values are missing for 4 of Bolivia's last 5 games
- Algeria's Offensive Efficiency: Averaged 3.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, despite a strong scoring record
All probabilities
Result
Bolivia11%
Draw20%
Algeria69%
Double chance
Bolivia or draw31%
Algeria or draw89%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
0:2
12%
1:1
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
9%
1:3
7%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bolivia with Lucas Dionis Macazaga Ojopi: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Algeria with Ibrahim Maza: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Algeria: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Bolivia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Bolivia 4-1-4-1 · Algeria 4-3-3
Bolivia
- 1 C. Lampe Porras
- 3 L. Macazaga Ojopi
- 5 E. Morales Badillo
- 6 M. Tórrez Contreras
- 17 R. Fernández Toro
- 8 S. Viviani Hinojosa
- 13 M. Paniagua
- 14 R. Tomé de Araújo Benegas
- 16 E. Vaca Moreno
- 15 G. Villamíl Cortéz
- 7 M. Terceros
Algeria
- 16 O. Benbot
- 3 A. Abada
- 26 S. Chergui
- 2 A. Mandi
- 15 R. Aït Nouri
- 14 H. Boudaoui
- 22 I. Maza
- 19 N. Bentaleb
- 7 R. Mahrez
- 18 M. Amoura
- 12 A. Benbouali
Substitutes
- 2 D. Arroyo
- 12 G. Govea Herrera
- 20 C. Melgar Vargas
- 22 L. Zabala Zeballos
- 4 L. Haquin Lopez
- 18 G. Centella Bazan
- 11 N. Nacif Joffre
- 23 G. Vizcarra Bruckner
- 19 ?. López
- 21 Y. Rocha Rodriguez
- 9 D. Ribera Bruun
- 10 F. Chaïbi
- 13 J. Hadjam
- 9 A. Gouiri
- 23 L. Zidane
- 11 A. Hadj Moussa
- 24 Y. Titraoui
- 17 R. Belghali
- 25 F. Ghedjemis
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 H. Aouar
- 20 A. Boulebina
- 1 M. Mastil
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 4 M. Tougai
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