La Liga
Real Oviedo - Atlético de Madrid
02/28/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
3.6
2.5
1:2
9%1:3
8%0:3
7%2:2
5%1:4
5%What influences the xG?
Real Oviedo
Atlético de Madrid
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
15%
Draw
20%
Away Win
65%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
49%
Under 3.5
51%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
35%
Away or Draw
85%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Difference in class: Fourth-placed Atlético meets last-placed Oviedo, a gap reflected in all season statistics
- Offensive discrepancy: Atlético's attack (avg 1.68 goals) faces Oviedo's harmless offense (avg 0.67 goals), which has failed to score in 14 matches
- Strong prediction: The mathematical analysis clearly favors Atlético with a 65% win probability
Risk Factors
- Defensive vulnerability away: Atlético Madrid concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away game, which could be an opportunity for Oviedo
- Short recovery time: Atlético had only 4 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
Overview
Real Oviedo (20th place, 17 points) hosts Atlético Madrid (4th place, 48 points) at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
La Liga match on February 28, 2026, 9:00 PM
A clear clash between a relegation candidate and a Champions League aspirant
Form
Real Oviedo Form: L-L-W-L-D
In the last 5 matches, there has been 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Atlético Madrid Form: W-L-D-W-W
Atlético Madrid secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and suffered 1 loss in their last 5 games
The visitors are in significantly better form
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Real Oviedo has one of the weakest attacks in the league, with only 16 goals in 24 matches (avg 0.67 per game)
They failed to score in 14 of their 24 matches
Atlético Madrid is much more dangerous in front of goal with 42 goals (avg 1.68 per game)
However, Atlético concedes an average of 1.86 goals away from home, which is significantly more than their season average of 0.92
Head-to-Head
In the last 2 head-to-head encounters, Atlético Madrid has been clearly dominant
The team from Madrid won both matches without conceding a single goal (4:0 goals)
The last meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for Atlético
Key Players
For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas (5 goals, 1 assist) and Ilyas Chaira (3 goals, 1 assist) are the most important attacking players
For Atlético Madrid, Alexander Sørloth stands out with 9 goals this season
Ademola Lookman is in rising form with 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 appearances
Goalkeepers
Real Oviedo's goalkeeper Aarón Escandell has kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches
Atlético Madrid's Jan Oblak has managed to keep 10 clean sheets in 25 games
Influences
Real Oviedo's home record is weak, with only 5 goals scored and 13 conceded in 8 home games
The last 5 matches at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere have been very low-scoring, with an average of 1.2 goals per game
Only one of these five matches saw more than 2.5 goals