La Liga
FC Barcelona - Villarreal
02/28/2026, 03:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.7
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
FC Barcelona
Villarreal
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
28%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Dominant home strength meets vulnerable away defense: Barça is a force at Camp Nou (2.64 goals scored vs 0.36 conceded per game), while Villarreal concedes 1.6 goals per away game
- Tactical mismatch: Barcelona's possession-heavy style (71% possession) and high shot volume will put immense pressure on Villarreal
- Key absences: Villarreal is significantly weakened by the absence of top scorer Gerard Moreno (7 season goals), leaving only 79% of their goal threat available
Risk Factors
- Contrasting form trends: Barcelona's goal production has dropped from 2.6 to 1.8 goals per game, while Villarreal's has increased from 1.7 to 2.0
- Unpredictable head-to-heads: Direct encounters are often high-scoring and unpredictable, with Villarreal having won two of the last five meetings
Overview
A top-of-the-table clash in La Liga as league leaders FC Barcelona (1st place, 61 points) host third-placed Villarreal (3rd place, 51 points)
The match takes place on February 28, 2026, 4:15 PM at Camp Nou
This is a crucial encounter for both teams in the title race
Form
FC Barcelona Form: WWLLW
In the last 5 matches, they have recorded 3 wins and 2 losses
Villarreal Form: DWLWW
The visitors are in good form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and only 1 loss from their last 5 games
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
FC Barcelona has the strongest attack in the league, averaging 2.68 goals per game
At home, they are a powerhouse, conceding only 0.36 goals on average
Villarreal is also dangerous in front of goal with 1.88 goals per game but is vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.6 goals
The last 5 home games at Camp Nou have seen an average of 3.2 goals per match
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, FC Barcelona has the edge with 3 wins, while Villarreal has won 2
There have been no draws
The goal difference is 16:12 in favor of Barcelona, indicating high-scoring matches
The last meeting ended in a 2-0 win for Barcelona
Key Players
Lamine Yamal (10 goals, 9 assists), Ferran Torres (12 goals, 1 assist), and Dani Olmo (6 goals, 6 assists) are the key figures in Barcelona's attack
For Villarreal, hopes are pinned on Alberto Moleiro (9 goals, 4 assists), Georges Mikautadze (8 goals, 4 assists), and Nicolas Pépé (3 goals, 4 assists)
Goalkeepers
Joan GarcĂa is in goal for FC Barcelona, whose team has kept 10 clean sheets this season
His counterpart is Luiz JĂșnior of Villarreal, whose team has kept a clean sheet 8 times so far
Influences
The home advantage for FC Barcelona at Camp Nou is immense
They score an average of 2.64 goals at home and concede only 0.36
Statistics from recent games at the stadium point to a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.2 goals and an over 2.5 rate of 80%