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La Liga

Elche - Espanyol

03/01/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Elche
1.3
Total xG
3.5
Espanyol
2.2
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%

2:1

6%

0:3

5%
What influences the xG?
ELCESP

Elche

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 9, 8 places gap)
-0.11
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.06

Espanyol

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+1.66
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 17, 8 places gap)
+0.09
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

22%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis clearly favors Espanyol with a 57% win probability and 2.23 expected goals
  • Contrasting offensive trends: Espanyol has been scoring more frequently recently (1.6 goals/game) than their season average, while Elche's goal production (1.3) is declining
  • Historical dominance: Espanyol is undefeated in the last five head-to-head matches (3 wins, 2 draws)
Risk Factors
  • Extremely poor form for both teams (LLLDL), which makes the outcome unpredictable
  • Elche's strong home defense (only avg 0.81 goals conceded) could neutralize Espanyol's attack, contradicting the high goal prediction
Overview

Elche (17th place, 25 points) hosts Espanyol (9th place, 35 points) at the Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero

The La Liga match takes place on March 1, 2026, 2:00 PM

Elche is fighting for crucial points against relegation, while Espanyol aims to stay in touch with the top half of the table

Form

Both teams are in extremely poor form

Elche's form from the last five games: LLLDL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)

Espanyol's form from the last five games: LLLDL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)

Neither team has won any of their last five matches and are in desperate need of a victory

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

The season statistics of both teams are strikingly similar

Both Elche and Espanyol have conceded 37 goals in 25 matches (avg 1.48 per game)

Offensively, they are also nearly identical, with 32 goals for Elche (avg 1.28) and 31 for Espanyol (avg 1.24)

A significant difference is Elche's home strength: they concede only avg 0.81 goals at home, whereas Espanyol concedes avg 1.58 goals away

Head-to-Head

The historical record clearly favors Espanyol

In the last five direct encounters, there were 3 wins for Espanyol and 2 draws, with Elche failing to win

The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Espanyol

The last meeting was won by Espanyol 1-0

Key Players

André Silva (6 season goals)

Rafa Mir (6 season goals)

GermĂĄn Valera (4 goals, 3 assists)

Pere Milla (6 season goals)

Kike GarcĂ­a (4 goals, 1 assist)

Carlos Romero (4 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

In goal, MatĂ­as Dituro for Elche will face Manuel Iori for Espanyol

So far this season, Espanyol has kept 7 clean sheets

Elche has managed this in 6 matches

Influences

Elche has a strong defensive record at their home stadium, conceding an average of just 0.81 goals per game

Matches at the Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero have been high-scoring recently, with an average of 3.2 goals in the last five games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of these home matches

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