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La Liga

Girona - Celta de Vigo

03/01/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Girona
1.1
Total xG
2.9
Celta de Vigo
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
GIRCDV

Girona

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01

Celta de Vigo

Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+1.13
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Borja Iglesias not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Iago Aspas not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Javi Rueda not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
70% of goal output missing (only 29% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

26%

Away Win

53%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

47%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Celta de Vigo are in superior form with three consecutive wins, while Girona's performance is inconsistent
  • Celta are stronger away (1.36 goals/game) than Girona are at home (1.00 goals/game)
  • Celta's attack (1.36 goals/game) meets one of the league's weaker defenses (Girona concedes 1.60 goals/game)
Risk Factors
  • Celta de Vigo are missing key players like Borja Iglesias and Iago Aspas, leaving only 29% of their season's goal threat available
  • Girona is undefeated in the last 5 head-to-head matches against Celta de Vigo (2 wins, 3 draws)
  • Celta de Vigo has a shorter recovery time with only 3 days since their last match
Overview

Girona (11th place, 30 points) host Celta de Vigo (6th place, 37 points) at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi

La Liga match on March 1, 2026, 9:00 PM

Celta de Vigo are fighting for European spots, while Girona are in the mid-table

Form

Girona's form in the last 5 games: D-L-D-W-D (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

Celta de Vigo's form in the last 5 games: L-D-W-W-W (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Celta de Vigo are in excellent form with three consecutive wins

Girona's form is inconsistent with only one win in their last five matches

(Form: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Girona scores an average of 1.04 goals per game this season and concedes 1.60

Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.36 goals and concedes 1.08

At home, Girona averages 1.00 goals scored but concedes 1.58

Away from home, Celta de Vigo are strong, scoring 1.36 and conceding only 1.09 goals per game

In 15 of 25 games for both teams, both teams scored

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for Girona, 0 wins for Celta de Vigo, and 3 draws

Girona scored 6 goals in these matches, while Celta de Vigo scored 4

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw

Girona are undefeated in recent meetings

Key Players

Vladyslav Vanat is Girona's top scorer with 8 goals this season

Viktor Tsygankov has contributed with 5 goals and 2 assists

Azzedine Ounahi is a key midfielder with 3 goals and 2 assists

Ferran JutglĂ  has scored 3 goals for Celta this season

Hugo Álvarez has been directly involved in 3 goals (2 goals, 1 assist)

Defender Óscar Mingueza has 1 goal and 2 assists to his name

Goalkeepers

Girona's goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga has kept 4 clean sheets in 25 league games

Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper Ionuț Radu boasts double the amount with 8 clean sheets

Influences

Girona has a negative record at home, scoring 1.00 goals and conceding 1.58 per game

The Estadi Municipal de Montilivi is not a fortress for the home team

An average of 2.2 goals were scored in the last 5 home games

This suggests a match with a moderate number of goals

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