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La Liga

Villarreal - Elche

03/08/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Villarreal
1.9
Total xG
2.7
Elche
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
VILELC

Villarreal

Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.04
Ayoze PĂ©rez not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Elche

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.37
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap)
-0.12
André Silva on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Pedro Bigas on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

25%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis predicts Villarreal to win with a 61% probability
  • Home strength vs. Away weakness: Villarreal scores an average of 1.81 goals at home and concedes 0.69, while Elche concedes an average of 2.67 goals away
  • Form trend: Villarreal won 3 of their last 5 games, whereas Elche remained winless in the same period
Risk Factors
  • Villarreal: Counter-attacking oriented (43% possession), 3.4 shots on target (average)
  • Limited attacking threat for Elche: Only 89% of the usual starting XI's assists are available without Pedro Bigas
Overview

Villarreal (4th place, 51 points) host Elche (17th place, 26 points) at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica

The La Liga match is on March 8, 2026, 2:00 PM

Villarreal aims to improve its league position, while Elche fights for survival

Form

Villarreal's form in the last 5 games is WLWWL, consisting of 3 wins and 2 losses

Their last match ended in a loss

Elche's form over the last 5 games is LLDLD, meaning 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Their last game was a draw

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Villarreal averages 1.85 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per game

These values improve at home to 1.81 goals scored and only 0.69 goals conceded per home game

Elche averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Elche's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per away game

Villarreal home matches have seen an average of 3.4 goals in 5 games

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the 5 previous head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 3 and Elche won 2, with no draws

Villarreal scored 12 goals and Elche scored 6

The last encounter on January 3, 2026, resulted in a 3-1 victory for Villarreal

Villarreal has been the more dominant side in recent meetings

Key Players

For Villarreal, Alberto Moleiro (9 goals, 4 assists) and Georges Mikautadze (8 goals, 4 assists) stand out, both with rising form trends

Nicolas Pépé contributed 3 goals and 4 assists

For Elche, Álvaro Rodríguez (5 goals, 4 assists) and Germån Valera (4 goals, 3 assists) are important attacking players

Rafa Mir scored 7 season goals

Goalkeepers

Luiz JĂșnior is Villarreal's goalkeeper, with 8 clean sheets this season

MatĂ­as Dituro is Elche's goalkeeper, Elche has achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Villarreal demonstrates strong home performance with an average of 1.81 goals scored and only 0.69 goals conceded per home game

The venue surface is grass

The Estadio de la CerĂĄmica has seen an average of 3.4 total goals in its last 5 games

Both teams scored in 80% of matches and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

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