La Liga
Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad
03/07/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.3
1.4
1:1
11%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
25%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
42%
Under 3.5
58%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Atlético Madrid with a 46% win probability and 1.85 expected goals
- Home strength and form: Atlético Madrid's positive form and strong home performance (1.67 goals scored, 0.56 goals conceded per home game) speak for them
- Historical record: Atlético Madrid dominated head-to-head matches with 3 wins and no losses in 5 encounters
Risk Factors
- Fatigue: Real Sociedad had only 3 days rest since their last match
- Defensive weakness: Real Sociedad recorded only 2 clean sheets in 26 games
- High-scoring game: The pipeline prediction for 'Both Teams to Score' is 66%, indicating a potentially open match
Overview
Atlético Madrid (3rd place, 51 points) host Real Sociedad (8th place, 35 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. La Liga match on March 7, 2026, 5:30 PM. The Colchoneros are fighting for a top spot, while Real Sociedad aims to consolidate their position in the upper mid-table.
Form
Atlético Madrid's current form across all competitions is DWWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). They recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Atlético Madrid's form trend is described as positive. Real Sociedad shows a form of WLDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. Real Sociedad's form trend is negative.
Statistics
Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.65 goals per game and concedes 0.88 goals. At home, these values improve to 1.67 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded. Real Sociedad averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded per match. Away, they score 1.4 goals and concede 1.8 goals on average. The Riyadh Air Metropolitano records an average of 3.8 goals per game, with a 60% 'Both teams scored' rate and an 80% 'Over 2.5 goals' rate.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid secured 3 wins, while Real Sociedad did not win any. 2 games ended in a draw. The goal difference of 10:3 clearly favors Atlético. The last encounter on January 4, 2026, ended 1:1. Atlético is described as the recently dominant team in direct duels.
Key Players
For Atlético Madrid, Alexander Sørloth (9 goals), Thiago Almada (3 goals, 1 assist, declining form trend), and Álex Baena (2 goals, 2 assists, declining form trend) are noteworthy. For Real Sociedad, Mikel Oyarzabal (10 goals, 3 assists, declining form trend), Gonçalo Guedes (6 goals, 4 assists, rising form trend), and Carlos Soler (3 goals, 2 assists, rising form trend) stand out.
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper for Atlético Madrid is Jan Oblak. Real Sociedad's goalkeeper is Álex Remiro (rising form trend). Atlético Madrid recorded 11 clean sheets this season, while Real Sociedad achieved 2 clean sheets.
Influences
The Riyadh Air Metropolitano is a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.8 goals per game, a 60% 'Both teams scored' rate, and an 80% 'Over 2.5 goals' rate. Atlético Madrid is offensively strong and defensively stable at home, with 1.67 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded per home game. Real Sociedad concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game.