La Liga
Valencia - Deportivo Alavés
03/08/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.2
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
14%0:0
13%2:0
10%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Valencia
Deportivo Alavés
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
32%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 47% win probability for Valencia with 1.33 predicted home goals
- Valencia's home defense is solid, conceding an average of 0.87 goals per home game
- Deportivo Alavés shows a negative form trend (0 wins in their last 5 games) and concedes an average of 2.38 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Valencia's offensive efficiency might be hampered by an average of only 1.8 shots on target
- The historical head-to-head record shows 3 wins and 2 draws for Deportivo Alavés
Overview
Valencia (15th place, 29 points) host Deportivo Alavés (16th place, 27 points) at Estadio de Mestalla
La Liga match on March 8, 2026, 9:00 PM
A clash in the lower mid-table, where both teams seek crucial points against relegation
Form
Valencia's form in the last five games is LLWLW
This consists of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses
Deportivo Alavés' form in the last five matches is LLDDL
This translates to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Valencia averages 1.04 goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals
In home games, Valencia averages 1.07 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded
Deportivo Alavés averages 0.88 goals per game and concedes 1.31 goals
In away games, Deportivo Alavés averages 0.88 goals scored and 2.38 goals conceded
Valencia kept 7 clean sheets, while Deportivo Alavés managed 3
At Estadio de Mestalla, an average of 2.6 total goals were scored in the last 5 matches
In 3 of 5 games at Mestalla, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 games, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valencia recorded 0 wins and Deportivo Alavés recorded 3 wins
Two matches ended in a draw
The goal difference in these encounters is 2:5 in favor of Deportivo Alavés
The last meeting on October 20, 2025, ended in a 0:0 draw
The recent record shows dominance by the away team
Key Players
For Valencia, Umar Sadiq, an attacker, is important with 1 goal in 3 games and 0.16 goals per 90 minutes this season
Thierry Correia, a defender, shows stable form with a trend delta of 0.16
Unai Núñez, also a defender, has stable form with a trend delta of 0.14
For Deportivo Alavés, Toni Martínez, an attacker, stands out with 2 goals in 3 games and 0.26 goals per 90 minutes this season
Lucas Boyé, an attacker, scored 1 goal in 3 games and has 0.45 season goals per 90 minutes
Carles Aleñá, a midfielder, provided 1 assist in 3 games and shows a rising form with a trend delta of 0.20
Goalkeepers
Valencia's goalkeeper, Stole Dimitrievski, has an average season rating of 6.88
He has kept 7 clean sheets in total this season
Antonio Sivera is Deportivo Alavés' goalkeeper with an average season rating of 6.74
He has managed to keep 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Valencia averages 1.07 goals scored at home and concedes 0.87 goals
Deportivo Alavés averages 0.88 goals scored away and concedes 2.38 goals
At Estadio de Mestalla, an average of 2.6 goals were scored in the last 5 matches
There are no specific records for either team on grass surfaces in the dataset
The stadium has seen both teams score in 3 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 games