La Liga
Athletic Club - FC Barcelona
03/07/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
3.4
2.1
1:1
10%1:2
10%0:2
7%1:3
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Athletic Club
FC Barcelona
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
24%
Away Win
53%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
66%
Under 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
44%
Under 3.5
56%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
47%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- FC Barcelona has an away win probability of 53%
- FC Barcelona's offense is very strong this season with an average of 2.73 goals per game
- FC Barcelona dominated the recent head-to-head matches
- Tactical analysis shows Barcelona's ball-dominant playstyle with 6.8 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Athletic Club has only 3 days of rest since the last match
- FC Barcelona concedes an average of 1.82 goals per away game
Overview
Athletic Club (9th place, 35 points) host FC Barcelona (1st place, 64 points) at San Mamés Barria
La Liga match on March 7, 2026, 9:00 PM
Barcelona is fighting at the top of the table, while Athletic Club is in mid-table
The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with a probability of 53%
Form
Athletic Club's form in the last five games is LWWDL
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The last game ended in a loss
FC Barcelona's form in the last five games is LLWWW
This corresponds to 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses
The last game was a win
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Athletic Club scores an average of 1.15 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.38 goals
Both teams scored in 14 games, and 12 games ended with over 2.5 goals
FC Barcelona scores an average of 2.73 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.00 goal
Both teams scored in 16 games, and 22 games ended with over 2.5 goals
The pipeline predicts that both teams will score with 66% probability
Over 2.5 goals are calculated by the model with 66% probability
At San Mamés Barria, an average of 3.4 goals per game are scored
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
According to advanced stats, Athletic Club's current goal production (1.0) is stalling compared to their season average (1.3)
FC Barcelona's goal production (2.2) is also stalling compared to their season average (2.6)
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Athletic Club, 3 wins for FC Barcelona, and 1 draw
FC Barcelona scored 11 goals and Athletic Club scored 5 goals
The last encounter on November 22, 2025, ended in a 0:4 away win for FC Barcelona
FC Barcelona dominated recent encounters
Key Players
For Athletic Club, Ălex Berenguer (2 goals, 3 assists, avg. 6.9), Iñaki Williams (2 goals, 2 assists, avg. 6.72), and Mikel Jauregizar (2 goals, 0 assists, avg. 6.88) are important players
Not nominated: Gorka Guruzeta (6G/1A), Yuri Berchiche (0G/3A), Oihan Sancet (2G/0A), Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (1G/1A)
For FC Barcelona, Lamine Yamal (13 goals, 9 assists, avg. 8.08), Ferran Torres (12 goals, 1 assist, avg. 6.96), and Dani Olmo (6 goals, 6 assists, avg. 7.39) are important players
Not nominated: FermĂn LĂłpez (5G/7A), Raphinha (8G/3A), Frenkie de Jong (1G/4A), Jules KoundĂ© (1G/3A), Alejandro Balde (0G/2A)
Goalkeepers
Unai SimĂłn of Athletic Club has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
Joan GarcĂa of FC Barcelona has achieved 10 clean sheets
Joan GarcĂa shows a strongly declining form trend (delta -1.60) according to the last 5 games
Influences
Athletic Club scored 17 goals at home and conceded 15 goals
FC Barcelona scored 30 goals away and conceded 20 goals
At San Mamés Barria, an average of 3.4 goals per game were scored
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
The playing surface is grass