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La Liga

Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid

03/06/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Celta de Vigo
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Real Madrid
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CDVRM

Celta de Vigo

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Javi Rueda not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Hugo Álvarez not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)

Real Madrid

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.19
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.07
Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.06
Gonzalo GarcĂ­a not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Álvaro Carreras  not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Form Trend: Celta de Vigo shows a positive form trend (1.8 goals recently) while Real Madrid's goal production is stagnating (1.6 goals recently).
  • Critical Absences Real Madrid: Only 73% of the usual starting XI strength is available, including important attacking players.
  • Historical Dominance Real Madrid: Despite Celta de Vigo's last H2H victory, the overall record of 4 out of 5 wins clearly favors Real Madrid.
Overview

Celta de Vigo (6th place, 40 points) host Real Madrid (2nd place, 60 points) at the Estadio de BalaĂ­dos. The La Liga match takes place on March 6, 2026, 9:00 PM. Celta de Vigo are fighting for European spots, while Real Madrid aim to keep pace with the league leaders.

Form

Celta de Vigo is in excellent form with a WWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches.

They have achieved 4 wins and 1 draw, with their last result being a win and boasting a streak of 4 consecutive wins.

Real Madrid shows a form of WLWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five games.

The Royals recorded 3 wins and 2 losses, with their last match ending in a loss.

Statistics

Celta de Vigo averages 1.38 goals scored per game and concedes 1.08 goals per game this season.

In home games, they average 1.36 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded.

They have kept 8 clean sheets in 8 matches.

Real Madrid averages 2.08 goals scored per game and concedes 0.85 goals per game.

Away from home, they average 2.08 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded.

Real Madrid has achieved 11 clean sheets this season.

The venue, Estadio de BalaĂ­dos, sees an average of 2.4 total goals per game.

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games.

Head-to-Head

In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, the record favors Real Madrid.

Real Madrid won 4 of these encounters, while Celta de Vigo secured one victory, with no draws.

The goal difference of 14:7 clearly points to Real Madrid.

The last direct clash on December 7, 2025, ended in a 2:0 victory for Celta de Vigo, despite Real Madrid's historical dominance.

Key Players

For Celta de Vigo, the following players are crucial:

Borja Iglesias leads with 10 goals and 2 assists in 23 appearances.

Ferran JutglĂ  contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in 18 matches.

Williot Swedberg scored 3 goals and 1 assist in 19 games.

For Real Madrid, the top players this season are:

Vinicius Junior with 9 goals and 5 assists in 25 appearances, although he did not play in the last five games (0/5 games, 0 Min, 0 goals, 0 assists).

Arda GĂŒler recorded 3 goals and 7 assists in 26 matches, also without playing in the last five games (0/5 games, 0 Min, 0 goals, 0 assists).

Federico Valverde contributed 1 goal and 7 assists in 25 games, also without playing in the last five games (0/5 games, 0 Min, 0 goals, 0 assists).

Goalkeepers

Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, Ionuț Radu, played 26 games this season and recorded 8 clean sheets.

For Real Madrid, Thibaut Courtois was between the posts in 26 matches and managed to keep a clean sheet in 11 games.

Influences

Celta de Vigo plays at home and has scored an average of 1.36 home goals while conceding 1.07 goals.

The Estadio de BalaĂ­dos has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches.

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches.

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