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La Liga

Espanyol - Real Oviedo

03/09/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Espanyol
1.9
Total xG
3.0
Real Oviedo
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ESPRO

Espanyol

Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 20, 13 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.02
Edu ExpĂłsito not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)
Roberto FernĂĄndez on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Pere Milla on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Real Oviedo

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.91
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 7, 13 places gap)
-0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.07
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.07
Ilyas Chaira on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Haissem Hassan on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 63% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

25%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline analysis: The mathematical prediction forecasts a home win for Espanyol with 52% probability
  • League standing: Espanyol is in 7th place, while Real Oviedo occupies the last position (20th)
  • Home strength vs. away weakness: Espanyol scores 1.23 goals at home, while Real Oviedo scores only 0.61 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Real Oviedo: Only 64% of the usual starting XI strength is available, as Ilyas Chaira (3 Goals/1 Assist) and Haissem Hassan (0 Goals/3 Assists) are missing
  • Espanyol's offensive efficiency: Espanyol averages only 2.8 shots on target per game
  • Espanyol's current form: The home team has not secured a win in their last five matches (LLDLD)
Overview

Espanyol (7th place, 36 points) host Real Oviedo (20th place, 17 points) at the RCDE Stadium

La Liga match on March 9, 2026, 9:00 PM

Espanyol is the clear favorite in this encounter

Form

Espanyol's current form across all competitions is LLDLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Elche

Real Oviedo's form shows WLDLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

They lost their last game 0-3 against Rayo Vallecano

Espanyol has a goal difference of 8:14 in their last five matches

Real Oviedo managed a goal difference of 4:9 in their last five matches

Espanyol is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)

Real Oviedo is currently scoring more frequently (1.0 goals) than their season average (0.8 goals)

Statistics

Espanyol averages 1.23 goals scored at home per game and concedes 1.38 goals

Real Oviedo averages 0.61 goals scored away and concedes 1.61 goals

Espanyol kept 7 clean sheets this season, with 3 at home

Real Oviedo managed 6 clean sheets this season, but none away

Espanyol had both teams scoring (BTTS) in 15 matches and over 2.5 goals in 14 matches

Real Oviedo had 8 BTTS matches and 10 matches with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, Espanyol secured 3 wins and Real Oviedo 2 wins, with no draws

Espanyol scored a total of 6 goals, while Real Oviedo netted 4 goals

The last meeting saw Espanyol win 2-0 on October 17, 2025

Espanyol has been the more dominant team in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

Carlos Romero is a key player for Espanyol with 5 season goals and 2 assists, his form is currently declining

Kike GarcĂ­a contributes 5 goals and 1 assist to Espanyol's offense, his form is stable

Tyrhys Dolan has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists, his form is stable

Federico Viñas is Real Oviedo's top scorer with 5 season goals and 1 assist, his form is rising

Alberto Reina scored 2 season goals for Real Oviedo, his form is stable

Thiago FernĂĄndez provided 1 assist for Real Oviedo, his form is rising

For Espanyol, Edu ExpĂłsito (1 Goal/6 Assists), Roberto FernĂĄndez (5 Goals/2 Assists), Pere Milla (6 Goals/0 Assists) are not nominated

Goalkeepers

Espanyol's goalkeeper Manuel Iori has achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Real Oviedo's goalkeeper AarĂłn Escandell has recorded no clean sheets in away games this season

Manuel Iori has an average season rating of 6.84

AarĂłn Escandell has an average season rating of 7.13

Influences

The RCDE Stadium records an average of 2.4 total goals per game

In 2 out of 5 games at the RCDE Stadium, both teams scored

Also, in 2 out of 5 games, over 2.5 goals were scored

Espanyol scores 1.23 goals at home and concedes 1.38 goals

Real Oviedo scores 0.61 goals away and concedes 1.61 goals

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