La Liga
Osasuna - Mallorca
03/07/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.4
0.7
1:0
14%2:0
13%1:1
12%0:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Osasuna
Mallorca
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
59%
Draw
27%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
41%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Form and Prediction: Osasuna's more stable form and the pipeline prediction (59% home win, 1.65 expected goals) favor the home team
- Home Strength Meets Away Weakness: Osasuna's strong home defense (Avg. 0.74 goals conceded) against Mallorca's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.78 goals conceded)
- Mallorca's Offensive Struggle: The away team's goal production is low on average this season (Avg. 1.21 goals) and even lower in recent form (Avg. 1.0 goals)
Risk Factors
- Mallorca concedes an average of 2.78 goals per away game
- Mallorca is missing players like Jan Virgili and Sergi Darder, accounting for 23% of the usual starting XI's assist strength
- Osasuna's playstyle is counter-attacking and generates few shots on target (Avg. 2.0 per game)
Overview
Osasuna (10th place, 33 points) hosts Mallorca (18th place, 24 points) at Estadio El Sadar
La Liga match on March 7, 2026, 2:00 PM
Osasuna aims to consolidate its mid-table position, while Mallorca fights against relegation
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 59%
Form
Osasuna shows a form of DWDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In their last five games, they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The last match was a 0-1 loss against Valencia
Mallorca, on the other hand, has a form of WLLLL
They managed only 1 win in their last five games and lost 4 times, including four consecutive losses
The last match was a 0-1 loss against Real Sociedad
Statistics
Osasuna scores an average of 1.15 goals per game and concedes 1.15 goals
They kept 6 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 12 matches
At home, Osasuna averages 1.16 goals scored and concedes only 0.74 goals
Mallorca scores 1.12 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.62 goals
They kept 3 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 16 matches
Away from home, Mallorca concedes an average of 2.78 goals per game and scores 1.11 goals
At Estadio El Sadar, the last 5 games averaged 3.4 total goals per match
In 4 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were recorded
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Osasuna, 1 win for Mallorca, and 3 draws
The goal difference is even at 7:7
The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on November 29, 2025
Recent matches show an even balance of power between the teams
Key Players
Ante Budimir (Attacker) is Osasuna's top scorer with 12 season goals
His form is stable with 2 goals and a rating of 7.21 in the last 3 games
VĂctor Muñoz (Attacker) contributed 4 goals and 1 assist, his form is slightly declining
RubĂ©n GarcĂa (Attacker) has scored 2 goals and provided 5 assists, his form is stable
For Mallorca, Vedat Muriqi (Attacker) leads with 16 season goals and 1 assist
His form is rising with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 2 games
SamĂș Costa (Midfielder) has scored 4 season goals and also shows rising form
Mateo Joseph (Attacker) has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists, his form is stable
Goalkeepers
Osasuna's goalkeeper Sergio Herrera has achieved 6 clean sheets this season
Mallorca's goalkeeper Leo RomĂĄn has managed 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Osasuna benefits from home advantage, scoring an average of 1.16 goals at home and conceding only 0.74 goals
Estadio El Sadar is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals per match
In 80% of the last home games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored