La Liga
Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano
03/08/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.5
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
30%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Rayo Vallecano shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more goals (1.8) than their season average (1.5)
- Sevilla has a negative form development, with fewer goals currently (1.2) than their season average (1.4)
- Sevilla's home offense (1.29 goals) meets Rayo Vallecano's weak away defense (2.00 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game
- Sevilla averages 3.4 shots on target, indicating an average offense
Overview
Sevilla (14th place, 30 points) host Rayo Vallecano (13th place, 30 points) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. The La Liga match takes place on March 8, 2026, 6:30 PM. Both teams are level on points in the lower mid-table and are fighting to catch up with the upper half of the league
Form
Sevilla's form in the last five matches is LDDWD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss), with their last result being a 2-2 draw. According to mathematical analysis, Sevilla's goal production is on a declining trend, currently at 1.2 goals compared to a season average of 1.4 goals. Rayo Vallecano shows a form of LWDDW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games and won their most recent match 3-0. Rayo Vallecano's goal production shows a positive trend, with currently 1.8 goals compared to a season average of 1.5 goals
Statistics
Sevilla scored an average of 1.31 goals and conceded 1.58 goals per game this season. At home, they averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded, with 2 clean sheets. Rayo Vallecano scored an average of 1.00 goal and conceded 1.23 goals per game. Away, they scored 1.00 goal and conceded 2.00 goals per game, with 3 clean sheets. Sevilla's stadium saw an average of 2.2 total goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Sevilla dominated with 3 wins and 2 draws, while Rayo Vallecano remained without a victory. The goal difference of 7:4 also clearly favors Sevilla. Sevilla won the last meeting away 1-0 on September 28, 2025
Key Players
For Sevilla, Akor Adams stands out with 6 goals and 4 assists this season, with an average rating of 6.79. In the last 5 games, he had no goal contributions, and his form is declining. Djibril Sow scored 4 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.79; he scored once in his last 3 appearances, and his form is stable. Alexis Sánchez has 3 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.80. For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos is the top scorer with 10 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.94. He scored 1 goal in his last appearance, and his form is rising. Isi Palazón contributed 3 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.91, and his form is declining. Andrei Rațiu provided 3 assists with a rating of 6.96, and his form is also declining
Goalkeepers
Sevilla's goalkeeper, Odysseas Vlachodimos, has recorded 5 clean sheets this season. Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper, Augusto Batalla, has achieved 8 clean sheets
Influences
Sevilla's home strength is evident with an average of 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded in home matches. The Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last five matches