La Liga
Atlético Madrid - Getafe
03/14/2026, 03:15 PM
Expected Goals
2.2
3.4
1.2
1:1
10%2:1
10%2:0
8%3:1
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Atlético Madrid
Getafe
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
23%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
66%
Under 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
45%
Under 3.5
55%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees a home win for Atlético Madrid with a 58% probability
- Home strength: Atlético Madrid shows a strong offense (1.74 goals) and concedes few goals (0.63) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano
- Rising form for both teams: Atlético is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.1), and Getafe is as well (1.4 vs. 1.0)
Risk Factors
- Atlético Madrid has conceded more goals in recent games (1.6) than their season average (1.21)
- Getafe is counter-oriented (33% possession) and averages 3.6 shots on target
- Getafe shows improved offensive performance in recent form (1.4 goals/game compared to 1.0 in season average)
Overview
Atlético Madrid (4th place, 54 points) host Getafe (9th place, 35 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga match on March 14, 2026, 4:15 PM
Atlético aims to solidify its Champions League spot, while Getafe seeks to climb into the upper half of the table
Form
Atlético Madrid shows strong form with WWLWW, recording 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
The team has achieved two consecutive wins
Getafe also displays impressive form of WWLWW, with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games
Getafe has also secured two consecutive victories
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.7 goals per game and concedes 0.93 goals per game
At home, they score 1.74 goals and concede only 0.63 goals on average
Atlético recorded 11 clean sheets and 13 games with both teams scoring
Getafe scores an average of 0.85 goals per game and concedes 1.07 goals
Away, their values are 0.85 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per game
Getafe kept 8 clean sheets and had 9 games with goals from both sides
The last 5 games at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano saw an average of 5.4 goals per match
In 4 out of 5 of these games, both teams scored, and in all 5 games, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid dominated with 4 wins compared to 1 win for Getafe
Atlético scored 11 goals, while Getafe managed 2 goals
The last encounter was won by Atlético Madrid away with a 1:0 score on November 23, 2025
Key Players
For Atlético Madrid, Alexander Sørloth (10 season goals) and Thiago Almada (3 season goals, 1 assist) are key attacking players
Nico González (3 season goals) also contributes to the goal threat
Not nominated are Giuliano Simeone (3G/5A), Antoine Griezmann (6G/1A), Marcos Llorente (0G/4A), Matteo Ruggeri (0G/3A), and Dávid Hancko (0G/2A)
For Getafe, Mauro Arambarri (5 season goals, 2 assists), Martín Satriano (3 season goals), and Luis Milla (8 season assists) are crucial players
Goalkeepers
Atlético's goalkeeper Juan Musso has a season average rating of 7.13
Atlético Madrid recorded 11 clean sheets this season
Getafe's goalkeeper David Soria has a season average rating of 6.93
Getafe managed to keep 8 clean sheets
Influences
The Riyadh Air Metropolitano is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 5.4 goals per match in the last 5 games
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 100% of these home games
Atlético Madrid shows a strong offense at home with an average of 1.74 goals and a solid defense with only 0.63 goals conceded
Getafe scores an average of 0.85 goals away and concedes 1.38 goals
The playing surface is grass