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La Liga

Real Oviedo - Valencia

03/14/2026, 05:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Real Oviedo
0.8
Total xG
2.2
Valencia
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

14%

0:0

13%

0:2

11%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
ROVAL

Real Oviedo

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.95
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.46
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 12, 8 places gap)
-0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.06
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.06
Ilyas Chaira on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Haissem Hassan on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Valencia

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.30
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 20, 8 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Luis Rioja on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

31%

Away Win

49%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

51%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Valencia has a win probability of 49%, while Real Oviedo is at just 21%
  • Current form: Valencia showed better form in the last five games with 3 wins, while Real Oviedo remained winless
  • Offensive strength: Real Oviedo averages only 0.62 goals at home, while Valencia scores 1.1 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Valencia's defensive vulnerability away from home with an average of 2.6 goals conceded per game
  • Valencia's limited offensive output, averaging only 2.8 shots on target
  • Valencia's significant injury list, including J. Agirrezabala (Meniscus Tear), J. Arias Copete (Meniscus Tear), D. Foulquier (Knee Injury), M. Diakhaby (Muscle Injury), and L. BeltrĂĄn (Knee Problems)
Overview

Real Oviedo (20th place, 18 points) host Valencia (12th place, 32 points) at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere. La Liga match on March 14, 2026, 6:30 PM. Real Oviedo is fighting relegation, while Valencia is in the mid-table. The mathematical analysis predicts a clear favorite role for Valencia with a win probability of 49% compared to 21% for Real Oviedo

Form

Real Oviedo shows no wins in their last five games (LDLLD). The home side's record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their last match ended in a draw. Valencia, on the other hand, has won three of their last five matches (LWLWW). The visitors have 3 wins and 2 losses and enter this encounter with two consecutive victories

Statistics

Real Oviedo averages 0.63 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded. The team kept 6 clean sheets. Valencia scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 1.52 goals per game this season. Away from home, Valencia averages 1.1 goals scored and concedes an alarming 2.6 goals per away game. Valencia records 7 clean sheets. At Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, an average of 1.4 goals have been scored in the last 5 games. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There has been one head-to-head match between Real Oviedo and Valencia. Valencia won this game at home with a score of 2-1 on September 30, 2025. Valencia dominated the last home encounter

Key Players

For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas (5 goals, 1 assist), Alberto Reina (3 goals), and Thiago Fernåndez (2 assists) are key offensive players. In Valencia's starting lineup, Umar Sadiq (1 goal, 1 assist), Largie Ramazani (4 goals, 1 assist), and Arnaut Danjuma (3 goals, 2 assists) are important. Real Oviedo's squad is missing Ilyas Chaira (3 goals, 1 assist) and Haissem Hassan (3 assists), who represent 76% of the usual starting XI's goal threat. For Valencia, Luis Rioja (2 goals, 4 assists) is not in the lineup, which corresponds to 90% of the usual starting XI's strength

Goalkeepers

Real Oviedo's goalkeeper AarĂłn Escandell has kept 6 clean sheets this season. Valencia's goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski achieved 7 clean sheets

Influences

Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere is a venue with an average of 1.4 goals per game. In 40% of the last 5 games, both teams scored, and in 20% there were over 2.5 goals. Real Oviedo scores an average of 0.62 goals at home and concedes 1.75 goals. Valencia, on the other hand, scores 1.1 goals away and concedes 2.6 goals per away game

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