đŸ‡Ș🇾

La Liga

Real Madrid - Elche

03/14/2026, 08:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Madrid
2.6
Total xG
3.4
Elche
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

1:1

8%
What influences the xG?
RMELC

Real Madrid

Attack strength (1.48x league average)
+1.38
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.51
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.3 season average)
-0.20
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 17, 15 places gap)
+0.18
Arda GĂŒler on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists)
Gonzalo GarcĂ­a on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Álvaro Carreras  not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Trent Alexander-Arnold  on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
RaĂșl Asencio not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Elche

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.40
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 2, 15 places gap)
-0.13
Álvaro Rodríguez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Marc Aguado on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Pedro Bigas on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

77%

Draw

16%

Away Win

7%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

93%

Away or Draw

23%

No Draw

84%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a very high 77% probability for a home win
  • Form: Real Madrid is in better form with 3 wins from their last 5 games compared to Elche with no wins
  • Home strength vs. away weakness: Real Madrid scores 2.07 goals at home and concedes only 0.64, while Elche concedes 2.6 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Limited starting XI strength for Real Madrid: Only 65% of usual goal threat available (without Arda GĂŒler, Gonzalo GarcĂ­a, Álvaro Carreras, Trent Alexander-Arnold, RaĂșl Asencio)
  • Fatigue: Real Madrid had only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Elche's defensive vulnerability away: The team concedes an average of 2.6 goals per away game
Overview

Real Madrid (2nd place, 63 points) host Elche (17th place, 26 points) at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

La Liga match on March 14, 2026, 9:00 PM

The Whites aim for a victory to close the gap on league leaders FC Barcelona (67 points)

Form

Real Madrid shows mixed form with a record of LWLWW in their last five matches

This equates to 3 wins and 2 losses

Elche is in a difficult phase with LDLDL in their last five games

This corresponds to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Real Madrid averaged 2.07 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 2.07 goals scored and only 0.64 goals conceded per home game

They kept 11 clean sheets, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 16 matches

Elche averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.52 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Elche is defensively vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per away game and recording 0 clean sheets

At the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and 4 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Real Madrid dominated with 3 wins and 2 draws

Elche failed to win any of these matches

Real Madrid scored a total of 13 goals, while Elche conceded 5 goals

The last meeting on November 23, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

Real Madrid: Vinicius Junior (9 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.29) is a key offensive player

Federico Valverde (2 goals, 7 assists, avg. 7.28) is important in midfield

Dean Huijsen (1 goal, 2 assists, avg. 7.07) contributes to defense and build-up play

Elche: André Silva (7 goals, 0 assists, avg. 6.89) is the most dangerous goal scorer

GermĂĄn Valera (4 goals, 3 assists, avg. 7.02) is also an important offensive player

Martim Neto (2 goals, 5 assists, avg. 6.81) provides assists from midfield

Goalkeepers

Thibaut Courtois of Real Madrid has 11 clean sheets this season and an average rating of 6.84

MatĂ­as Dituro of Elche recorded 6 clean sheets with an average rating of 7.23

Influences

The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu is a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and 4 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Real Madrid shows strong home performance with an average of 2.07 goals scored and 0.64 goals conceded

Elche is significantly weaker away with 1.3 goals scored and 2.6 goals conceded

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.