La Liga
Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal
03/13/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.7
1.3
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Deportivo Alavés
Villarreal
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
29%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Slight favoritism for Alavés: The mathematical analysis shows a 37% chance for a home win
- Villarreal's better season performance: Villarreal is in 4th place, while Alavés is in 16th place
- Villarreal's away dominance in H2H: 2 wins and 2 draws in 5 direct encounters
Risk Factors
- Villarreal concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Alavés' goal production is stalling (1.0), season average is 1.3
- Villarreal's goal production is stalling (1.4), season average is 1.7
Overview
Deportivo Alavés (16th place, 27 points) host Villarreal (4th place, 54 points) at the Estadio de Mendizorroza
La Liga match on March 13, 2026, 9:00 PM
Alavés is fighting for survival, while Villarreal aims for a Champions League spot
Form
Deportivo Alavés shows a form of LDDLL
This means 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from the last 5 games
The last two results were losses
Villarreal is in better form with LWWLW
This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses
The last result was a win
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Deportivo Alavés scores an average of 0.93 goals per game and concedes 1.37 goals
At home, they average 0.94 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded
Villarreal shows a stronger offense with an average of 1.85 goals per game
The defense concedes an average of 1.19 goals
Away, Villarreal scores 1.9 goals and concedes 2.0 goals per game
Alavés kept 3 clean sheets, Villarreal kept 8 clean sheets
The Estadio de Mendizorroza recently saw an average of 3.2 goals per game
In 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored
The mathematical analysis indicates a 56% probability that both teams will score
For over 2.5 goals, the probability is 50%
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches over recent years, Deportivo Alavés won 1 and Villarreal won 2
2 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is 4:8 in favor of Villarreal
The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended in a 3:1 away win for Villarreal
Villarreal has been predominantly dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
For Deportivo Alavés, Lucas Boyé is a key player with 9 goals and 1 assist in 21 seasonal appearances, but his form is declining
Toni Martínez scored 5 goals and 2 assists in 26 games and has stable form
Carles Aleñá provided 4 assists in 27 appearances and shows a rising form
For Villarreal, Georges Mikautadze stands out with 8 goals and 4 assists in 22 seasonal appearances, his form is stable
Nicolas Pépé contributed 3 goals and 4 assists in 26 games, his form is declining
Tajon Buchanan scored 6 goals and 1 assist in 25 matches, his form is also declining
Goalkeepers
Deportivo Alavés will be represented by goalkeeper Antonio Sivera, who recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Villarreal will have Luiz Júnior in goal, who has 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
Deportivo Alavés shows an average goal difference at home of 0.94 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded
Villarreal scores an average of 1.9 goals away and concedes 2.0 goals
The Estadio de Mendizorroza recorded an average of 3.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored