La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Levante
03/16/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.5
0.7
2:0
14%1:1
11%2:1
9%3:0
9%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
65%
Draw
24%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
35%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Favorites: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 65% for Rayo Vallecano
- Form trend: Rayo Vallecano shows a positive form development, while Levante's goal production is faltering (0.6 goals/game)
- Home strength Rayo Vallecano: Rayo Vallecano is significantly more dangerous at home (1.0 goals per home game) and has a stronger defense (0.67 goals conceded per home game) compared to Levante's away weakness
Risk Factors
- Tight schedule: Rayo Vallecano had only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Limited starting XI strength: Rayo Vallecano is missing Ălvaro GarcĂa (4G/4A), Isi PalazĂłn (3G/3A), Andrei RaÈiu (0G/3A), resulting in only 70% of usual goal threat being available
- Low goal threat: Levante averages only 3.2 shots on target per game
Overview
Rayo Vallecano (14th place, 31 points) host Levante (19th place, 22 points) at the Estadio de Vallecas
La Liga match on March 16, 2026, 9:00 PM
Rayo Vallecano aims to move away from the relegation zone, while Levante desperately needs points in the fight against relegation
Form
Rayo Vallecano is in a positive run of form with a DDWDW record in their last five games (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses)
Their last victory was a 3-1 away win against Samsunspor
Levante shows weaker form with LLLWD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Their last game ended in a 1-1 away draw against Girona
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.22 goals
At home, Rayo Vallecano is defensively stronger, conceding an average of 0.67 goals
Levante scores an average of 1.07 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per game
Away from home, Levante concedes an average of 1.5 goals
Both teams scored in 12 out of 27 Rayo Vallecano matches and in 13 out of 27 Levante matches
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 11 Rayo games and 12 Levante games
Head-to-Head
The last five head-to-head matches show an even record
Rayo Vallecano and Levante each won 2 games, with 1 match ending in a draw
Overall, Rayo Vallecano scored 9 goals, Levante 10 goals
The last encounter was won by Rayo Vallecano 3-0 away on October 19, 2025
Key Players
For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos is the top scorer of the season with 10 goals and 1 assist, holding an average rating of 6.95
Fran PĂ©rez contributed 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.64
Nobel Mendy scored 2 seasonal goals and has an average rating of 6.86
For Levante, IvĂĄn Romero is the most successful attacker of the season with 4 goals and 1 assist (6.85 rating)
Carlos EspĂ also scored 4 times this season (6.73 rating)
Jeremy Toljan stands out as a defender with 1 goal and 3 assists and has a rating of 6.63
Goalkeepers
Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper, Augusto Batalla, has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Mathew Ryan, Levante's goalkeeper, has kept 5 clean sheets
Influences
Rayo Vallecano's Estadio de Vallecas is known for high-scoring games
The last five games at the stadium averaged 2.8 total goals
In 4 out of 5 of these matches, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 out of 5 games
Rayo Vallecano shows a strong defense at home, conceding an average of only 0.67 goals per home game
The pitch surface is natural grass