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La Liga

Real Sociedad - Osasuna

03/15/2026, 08:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Sociedad
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Osasuna
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RSOSA

Real Sociedad

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.00
Jon Gorrotxategi on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)

Osasuna

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.04
Rubén García not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Real Sociedad's home advantage: Strong home offense (1.5 goals/game) against Osasuna's weak away defense (2.29 goals conceded/game)
  • Form trend: Real Sociedad with stable form, Osasuna shows a negative trend in goal production
  • Pipeline favoritism: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 46% probability
Risk Factors
  • Osasuna's away weakness: Concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game
  • Osasuna's low efficiency: Only 2.0 shots on target per game
Overview

Real Sociedad (8th place, 35 points) host Osasuna (11th place, 34 points) at the Anoeta Stadium. La Liga match on March 15, 2026, 8:00 PM. This is a mid-table clash where Real Sociedad are slight favorites. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 46% probability and 1.54 expected home goals

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Real Sociedad's form in the last 5 games is LDWWL with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The current form shows a stable trend

Osasuna's form in the last 5 games is WDWLD with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Osasuna's goal production is stagnant with a negative form trend

Statistics

Real Sociedad scores an average of 1.48 goals and concedes 1.52 goals per game this season

At home, Real Sociedad averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 22 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 16 games

Osasuna scores an average of 1.19 goals and concedes 1.19 goals per game this season

Away from home, Osasuna averages 1.14 goals scored and concedes an alarming 2.29 goals

Both teams scored in 13 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 12 games

Head-to-Head

The last 5 head-to-head matches show an even record with 2 wins for Real Sociedad, 2 wins for Osasuna, and 1 draw

Real Sociedad scored 8 goals, Osasuna 7 goals

The last encounter on January 13, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

Real Sociedad can count on Mikel Oyarzabal with 11 goals and 3 assists

Gonçalo Guedes contributed 6 goals and 4 assists

Brais MĂ©ndez showed up with 5 goals and 2 assists, but his form trend is declining

Osasuna's offense is led by Ante Budimir with 13 season goals

Víctor Muñoz has scored 4 goals and 2 assists, his form trend is declining

Alejandro Catena showed a rising form trend with 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Real Sociedad's goalkeeper Álex Remiro kept 2 clean sheets this season

Osasuna's goalkeeper Sergio Herrera recorded 6 clean sheets this season and showed a rising form trend

Influences

Anoeta Stadium is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals per match

In 80% of the last 5 games at Anoeta, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored

Real Sociedad are offensive at home with an average of 1.5 goals scored and defensively stable with 1.25 goals conceded

Osasuna concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game

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