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La Liga

Athletic Club - Real Betis

03/22/2026, 05:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Athletic Club
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Real Betis
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

12%

0:1

11%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
ACRB

Athletic Club

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.63
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.08
Mikel Jauregizar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Unai GĂłmez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Real Betis

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.30
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.03
Pablo Fornals on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

34%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Form decline for both teams: Athletic Club's goal production dropped to 0.6 goals/game (season average 1.2), Real Betis to 1.4 goals/game (season average 1.8)
  • Real Betis' away defensive vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 1.73 goals per away game
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical analysis sees a very close outcome with 35% home win, 34% draw, and 31% away win
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue for Real Betis: The team has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Extensive absences for Athletic Club: N. Williams Arthuer (Groin Injury), A. Paredes Casamichana (Leg Injury), and U. EguĂ­luz Arroyo (Cruciate Ligament Injury) are missing
  • Low scoring potential: The model predicts 1.06 expected home goals and 0.98 expected away goals, with an Over 2.5 probability of only 33%
Overview

Athletic Club (12th place, 35 points) hosts Real Betis (5th place, 44 points) at San Mamés Barria. La Liga match on March 22, 2026, 5:30 PM. Real Betis is fighting for international spots, while Athletic Club is in the midfield of the table.

Form

Athletic Club shows a league form of WLLLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Recently, there were 3 consecutive losses and one draw. Real Betis' form is WDLLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their last two games ended in a win and a draw. According to advanced statistics, the current form trend for both teams is negative. Athletic Club's goal production is currently stagnant at 0.6 goals per game, compared to the season average of 1.2 goals. Real Betis' goal production is 1.4 goals per game, compared to the season average of 1.8 goals.

Statistics

Athletic Club scored an average of 1.07 goals per game this season and conceded 1.43 goals. At home, the average is 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Real Betis showed stronger offense with an average of 1.54 goals per game, but also conceded 1.25 goals. Away from home, they scored an average of 1.55 goals and conceded 1.73 goals. Athletic Club kept a clean sheet in 5 matches, Real Betis in 8 matches. The San Mamés Barria stadium saw an average of 2.6 goals per game. In 60% of the matches, both teams scored, and 40% of the matches had over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, the balance has been even. Athletic Club won 2 matches, Real Betis won 1 match, and 2 games ended in a draw. The goal difference is 10:9 in favor of Athletic Club. The last encounter on August 31, 2025, was won by Athletic Club with a 2:1 score.

Key Players

For Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta (6 goals, 1 assist), Álex Berenguer (2 goals, 3 assists), and Iñaki Williams (2 goals, 2 assists) are key offensive players. Oihan Sancet contributed 2 goals. For Real Betis, Antony (7 goals, 5 assists), Cucho Hernåndez (8 goals, 3 assists), and Abde Ezzalzouli (5 goals, 5 assists) stand out. Aitor Ruibal scored 4 goals and 2 assists.

Goalkeepers

Unai SimĂłn is the goalkeeper for Athletic Club and recorded 5 clean sheets this season. For Real Betis, Pau LĂłpez is in goal and has not kept a clean sheet in his 8 appearances. Real Betis has a total of 8 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Athletic Club has a home advantage with 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per home game. An average of 2.6 goals per game are scored at San Mamés Barria. Weather is not mentioned in the provided dataset.

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