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La Liga

Osasuna - Girona

03/21/2026, 05:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Osasuna
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Girona
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OSAGIR

Osasuna

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.18

Girona

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.61
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.18
Thomas Lemar on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Bryan Gil not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

28%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Form contrast: Osasuna's goal production is stagnant (1.0), while Girona is currently scoring more frequently (1.8)
  • Head-to-head record: Girona dominated recent direct clashes with 4 wins in 5 matches
  • High-scoring tendency: Estadio El Sadar saw an average of 3.6 goals and always BTTS in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Osasuna's offensive efficiency: Season average of only 2.6 shots on target (average)
Overview

Osasuna (11th place, 34 points) host Girona (12th place, 34 points) at Estadio El Sadar

La Liga match on March 21, 2026, 6:30 PM

Both teams are level on points in the bottom half of the table

The mathematical analysis sees Girona as slight favorites with a 41% win probability

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Osasuna's current form across all competitions is DWLDL, with a loss in their last game

The home team achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches

According to Advanced Stats, Osasuna's recent form trend is negative, and goal production is stagnant (1.0) compared to the season average (1.6)

Girona's form across all competitions is WDLDW, with a win in their last game

The away team recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Girona's form trend is positive, and the team is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.2)

Statistics

Osasuna scores an average of 1.18 goals per game and concedes 1.25 goals per game this season

In home games, Osasuna scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 0.8 goals

The home team kept 6 clean sheets this season, 4 of them at home

Girona scores an average of 1.11 goals per game and concedes 1.54 goals per game this season

In away games, Girona scores an average of 1.07 goals and concedes 1.57 goals

The away team kept 5 clean sheets this season, 1 of them away

Estadio El Sadar has seen an average of 3.6 total goals in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 5 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games

The mathematical analysis predicts a 58% probability for both teams to score and a 53% probability for over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna achieved 1 win, Girona 4 wins, and there were 0 draws

Osasuna scored 4 goals in these encounters, while Girona scored 12 goals

The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Girona

Girona dominated recent direct clashes

Key Players

For Osasuna, Ante Budimir is the top scorer with 13 season goals

Víctor Muñoz contributed 5 goals and 2 assists

Rubén García provided 2 goals and 5 assists

For Girona, Vladyslav Vanat is the top attacker with 9 season goals and 1 assist, he has not played in the last 5 games

Viktor Tsygankov scored 5 goals and 4 assists this season, he has not played in the last 5 games

Azzedine Ounahi has 4 goals and 2 assists this season and recorded 1 assist in the last 5 games with stable form

Goalkeepers

Sergio Herrera is Osasuna's goalkeeper and showed an average rating of 7.75 in his last game with rising form

Osasuna kept 6 clean sheets this season

Paulo Gazzaniga is Girona's goalkeeper, and the team kept 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Estadio El Sadar, with an average of 3.6 goals per game, tends to see many goals scored

In the last 5 games at Estadio El Sadar, both teams always scored

Osasuna scored an average of 1.2 goals at home and conceded 0.8 goals

Girona scored an average of 1.07 goals away and conceded 1.57 goals

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