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La Liga

Elche - Mallorca

03/21/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Elche
1.9
Total xG
3.5
Mallorca
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
ELCMAL

Elche

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.03
Álvaro Rodríguez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)

Mallorca

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
+0.67
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.49
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Jan Virgili not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)
Johan Mojica not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

24%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical prediction: Elche has a 46% win probability and higher expected goals at 1.94 compared to Mallorca's 1.53
  • Vulnerable away defense: Mallorca concedes an average of 2.7 goals per away game
  • High-scoring home games: Elche's home matches average 3.2 goals per game and have an 80% BTTS rate
Risk Factors
  • Elche's poor form: Elche has 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 games and shows a negative form trend
  • Mallorca's high away goals conceded: Mallorca concedes an average of 2.7 goals per away game
  • Mallorca's stagnating goal production: Mallorca's recent goal production is 1.0, below their season average of 1.3
Overview

Elche (18th place, 26 points) host Mallorca (16th place, 28 points) at the Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero. The La Liga match is on March 21, 2026, 2:00 PM. This is a crucial relegation battle for both teams to secure their league status

Form

Elche shows poor form with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 games. The form trend is negative, with two consecutive losses

Mallorca records 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. The team managed to win their last game after a winless streak

Statistics

Elche averages 1.29 goals per game and concedes 1.61 goals. At home, their defense is stronger, conceding only 0.88 goals per home game

Mallorca averages 1.18 goals and concedes 1.61 goals. Away from home, Mallorca concedes significantly more, with 2.7 goals per game

Elche's home matches have seen an average of 3.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 80%

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, Elche secured 2 wins, Mallorca 1 win, and there were 2 draws. Elche scored 8 goals, Mallorca 6 goals

The last encounter was won by Mallorca on December 13, 2025, with a 3-1 scoreline

Key Players

André Silva scored 7 season goals in 22 appearances and shows stable form

Rafa Mir also scored 7 goals in 23 games, though his form is slightly declining

GermĂĄn Valera contributed 4 goals and 3 assists in 27 games and shows rising form

Not in lineup: Álvaro Rodríguez (5 goals/4 assists)

For Mallorca, Vedat Muriqi is the top scorer with 18 season goals and 1 assist in 27 appearances

SamĂș Costa scored 5 goals in 25 games

Sergi Darder contributed 1 goal and 4 assists in 28 games

Not in lineup: Jan Virgili (0 goals/5 assists), Johan Mojica (0 goals/3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Elche's goalkeeper MatĂ­as Dituro has kept 6 clean sheets in 12 appearances with an average rating of 7.13

Mallorca's goalkeeper Leo RomĂĄn played in 23 matches and recorded 3 clean sheets with an average rating of 6.83

Influences

Elche benefits from a home advantage, conceding only 0.88 goals per game at home

The Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero is known for high-scoring games, averaging 3.2 goals per match

Mallorca's away defense is very vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.7 goals per game

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