La Liga
Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid
03/22/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.4
1.0
2:1
10%2:0
9%1:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
8%What influences the xG?
Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
67%
Draw
20%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
66%
Under 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
45%
Under 3.5
55%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
33%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Real Madrid has a high win probability of 67% according to mathematical analysis, with 2.41 predicted home goals
- Real Madrid's strong home record is evident with an average of 2.2 home goals and only 0.67 home goals conceded, supported by a 4-game winning streak
- Atlético Madrid's away defense is less stable, conceding an average of 1.62 goals, compared to their home performance
Risk Factors
- Recent head-to-head matches show Atlético Madrid's dominance with 2 wins compared to Real Madrid's 1 win in the last 5 games
- Despite Real Madrid's strong offense, the form of Vinicius Junior, Arda Güler, and Federico Valverde shows a declining trend
Overview
Real Madrid (2nd place, 66 points) host Atlético Madrid (4th place, 57 points) at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. The La Liga match takes place on March 22, 2026, 9:00 PM. Real Madrid aims to reduce the gap to the top of the table, while Atlético Madrid looks to consolidate its Champions League position
Form
Real Madrid shows strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games (LWWWW)
The Whites are currently on a 4-game winning streak
Atlético Madrid has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches (LWWWL)
Atlético's last game ended in a loss
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Real Madrid scores an average of 2.14 goals per game this season and concedes 0.86 goals
In home games, Real Madrid scores an average of 2.2 goals and concedes only 0.67 goals
Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.68 goals per game this season and concedes 0.89 goals
In away games, Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.62 goals and concedes 1.62 goals
At the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, an average of 3.4 goals were scored in the last 5 games
In 3 out of 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and 4 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Real Madrid won 1, Atlético Madrid won 2, and 2 ended in a draw
The goal difference is 6:9 in favor of Atlético Madrid
The last meeting on September 27, 2025, ended in a 2:5 loss for Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid has been more dominant in recent direct duels
Key Players
For Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior (9 goals, 5 assists) and Arda Güler (4 goals, 8 assists) are important attacking players, both showing a declining form
Federico Valverde (3 goals, 7 assists) also shows a decreasing form
For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez (8 goals, 3 assists) and Antoine Griezmann (6 goals, 1 assist) are the top scorers
Giuliano Simeone (3 goals, 5 assists) is another key player in attack
Goalkeepers
Real Madrid's goalkeeper Andriy Lunin has 1 appearance this season
Real Madrid's team achieved 11 clean sheets this season
Atlético Madrid's goalkeeper Juan Musso has played in 2 games
Atlético Madrid's team recorded 12 clean sheets this season
Influences
Real Madrid enjoys a clear home advantage at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Home strength is evident with an average of 2.2 home goals scored and only 0.67 home goals conceded
The Santiago Bernabéu stadium tends to favor high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals per match