La Liga
Villarreal - Real Sociedad
03/20/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
28%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Villarreal's home strength: 1.82 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded per home game, with a slightly higher home win probability of 39% compared to 34% for an away win
- Real Sociedad's current offense: The team is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals), but faces a vulnerable defense away with an average of 2.1 goals conceded
- High-scoring encounter expected: The mathematical analysis indicates a 60% probability for both teams to score and a 56% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
- Real Sociedad concedes an average of 2.11 goals per away game
- Not nominated for Villarreal: Ayoze PĂ©rez (2G/3A)
- Not nominated for Real Sociedad: Beñat Turrientes (0G/3A)
Overview
Villarreal (4th place, 55 points) host Real Sociedad (7th place, 38 points) at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica. The La Liga match takes place on March 20, 2026, 9:00 PM. Villarreal aims to consolidate their Champions League spot, while Real Sociedad seeks to climb towards European places.
Form
Villarreal's last five games show a form of WWLWD, consisting of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their most recent match was a 1-1 draw against Deportivo Alavés. Prior to that, they secured a 2-1 win against Elche and suffered a 1-4 loss against FC Barcelona. Real Sociedad's form over the last five matches is DWWLW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. They recently won 3-1 against Osasuna, following a 2-3 loss against Atlético Madrid and a 1-0 win against Athletic Club. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Villarreal averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.18 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.82 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded. Villarreal kept 8 clean sheets this season, and both teams scored in 16 matches. Real Sociedad averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they score 1.6 goals and concede 2.1 goals per game. Real Sociedad kept 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 23 matches. The Estadio de la CerĂĄmica has seen an average of 3.2 total goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in 4 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there has been an even record with 2 wins for Villarreal, 2 wins for Real Sociedad, and 1 draw. The goal difference is slightly in favor of Real Sociedad with 8:9. The last encounter on November 30, 2025, saw Real Sociedad win 3-2 at home.
Key Players
For Villarreal, attacker Gerard Moreno is a key figure with 7 season goals and 0 assists, scoring 2 goals in 83 minutes across his last 5 games, showing a rising form trend. Attacker Alberto Moleiro contributed 9 season goals and 4 assists. Georges Mikautadze, also an attacker, has 8 goals and 4 assists this season. For Real Sociedad, attacker Mikel Oyarzabal stands out with 12 season goals and 3 assists. Gonçalo Guedes, another attacker, recorded 8 goals and 4 assists. Midfielder Brais Méndez scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists.
Goalkeepers
Villarreal's goalkeeper, Luiz JĂșnior, made 25 appearances this season. Villarreal as a team achieved 8 clean sheets this season. For Real Sociedad, Ălex Remiro was in goal for 28 matches. Real Sociedad as a team recorded 2 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The Estadio de la CerĂĄmica is characterized by a high average of 3.2 goals per game. In 4 out of 5 matches, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were registered. Villarreal benefits from a clear home advantage, with an average of 1.82 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded in home games. Real Sociedad appears more vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per away match.