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La Liga

Celta de Vigo - Deportivo Alavés

03/22/2026, 03:15 PM

3 : 4
Expected Goals
Celta de Vigo
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Deportivo Alavés
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CDVDA

Celta de Vigo

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.45
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 17, 11 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.05
Williot Swedberg on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Sergio Carreira on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Deportivo Alavés

Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 6, 11 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Full strength squad available
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

29%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of 54% for a home win for Celta de Vigo
  • Form and Table Position: Celta de Vigo is in 6th place with 41 points, while Deportivo Alavés is in 17th place with 28 points and shows weaker form (DDLLD)
  • Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.33 goals at home, while Deportivo Alavés concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Limited preparation time: Celta de Vigo had only 3 days since their last match
  • Away weakness: Deportivo Alavés concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • Celta de Vigo's goal production is stagnant (1.4), season average is 1.6
Overview

Celta de Vigo (6th place, 41 points) host Deportivo Alavés (17th place, 28 points) at the Estadio de Balaídos

La Liga match on March 22, 2026, 4:15 PM

Celta de Vigo aims to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table, while Deportivo Alavés seeks to move away from the relegation zone

Form

Celta de Vigo's form in their last five matches is WLDDW

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a win as the last result

Deportivo Alavés' form in their last five matches is DDLLD

This means 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a draw as the last result

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.36 goals per game and concedes 1.11 goals per game

They also kept 8 clean sheets

Deportivo Alavés scores an average of 0.93 goals per game and concedes 1.36 goals per game

They managed to keep 3 clean sheets

In home games, Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 1.13 goals

Deportivo Alavés concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away game

At the Estadio de Balaídos, the last 5 games averaged 2.2 total goals per match, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Celta de Vigo secured 2 wins, Deportivo Alavés had 1 win, and there were 2 draws

Celta de Vigo scored a total of 5 goals in these matches, while Deportivo Alavés scored 6 goals

The last encounter on November 22, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Celta de Vigo

Key Players

For Celta de Vigo, Borja Iglesias is an important attacker with 11 goals and 2 assists this season

Ferran Jutglà contributed 5 goals and 1 assist

Defender Óscar Mingueza showed offensive strength with 1 goal and 4 assists

For Deportivo Alavés, Lucas Boyé stands out with 9 goals and 1 assist this season

Toni Martínez scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists

Carles Aleñá delivered 4 assists in the current season

Goalkeepers

Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, Ionuț Radu, has recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Antonio Sivera, Deportivo Alavés' goalkeeper, achieved 3 clean sheets

Influences

Celta de Vigo has scored 20 goals and conceded 17 goals in home games this season

Deportivo Alavés has scored 9 goals and conceded 22 goals in away games

The Estadio de Balaídos has an average of 2.2 total goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 games

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