La Liga
FC Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano
03/22/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.7
3.7
1.0
2:1
9%3:0
8%3:1
8%4:0
6%4:1
6%What influences the xG?
FC Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
73%
Draw
17%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
72%
Under 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
51%
Under 3.5
49%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
27%
No Draw
83%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 73% probability
- FC Barcelona is clearly favored as table leader with an outstanding home record (2.71 goals/game, 0.47 goals conceded/game)
- Rayo Vallecano showed weaker performance in recent head-to-head matches and is historically inferior to FC Barcelona
Risk Factors
- Rayo Vallecano has only 3 days rest since their last match
- Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game, indicating a defensive weakness
Overview
FC Barcelona (1st place, 70 points) host Rayo Vallecano (14th place, 32 points) at Camp Nou. La Liga match on March 22, 2026, 2:00 PM. Barcelona leads the table and aims to extend their lead over Real Madrid. Rayo Vallecano is fighting to catch up with the mid-table
Form
The home team, FC Barcelona, is in excellent form with a record of WWDWW. This means 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches. Rayo Vallecano has a form of WDWDL, which includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Rayo Vallecano's last appearance resulted in a loss. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
FC Barcelona scores an average of 2.75 goals per game this season and concedes an average of 1 goal. Currently, the team scores 3.4 goals, more frequently than their season average of 2.7. At home, they are particularly strong with 2.71 goals scored and only 0.47 goals conceded per game. Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1 goal per game and concedes 1.21 goals. Away from home, Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 1.92 goals. At Camp Nou, the last five games have seen an average of 5.4 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and all 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Barcelona dominated with 3 wins compared to 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano. There were 2 draws. The goal difference in these matches is 8:3 in favor of FC Barcelona. The last encounter on August 31, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw. The historical record clearly favors the home team
Key Players
For FC Barcelona, Lamine Yamal with 14 season goals and 9 assists, Raphinha with 11 goals and 3 assists, and Robert Lewandowski with 11 goals and 1 assist are crucial. Rayo Vallecano relies on Jorge de Frutos with 10 goals and 1 assist, whose form trend is declining. Additionally, Ălvaro GarcĂa with 4 goals and 4 assists and Isi PalazĂłn with 3 goals and 3 assists are important attacking players
Goalkeepers
Joan GarcĂa, FC Barcelona's goalkeeper, has recorded 11 clean sheets this season. For Rayo Vallecano, goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has kept 8 clean sheets
Influences
Camp Nou is a fortress for FC Barcelona; the home team scores an average of 2.71 goals and concedes only 0.47 goals per home game. Statistics from the last five matches at the stadium show an average of 5.4 total goals per match, with over 2.5 goals in all five games and both teams scoring in 3 of 5 games. The grass pitch provides standard conditions