La Liga
Sevilla - Valencia
03/21/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.3
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
11%1:2
9%0:2
8%What influences the xG?
Sevilla
Valencia
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
31%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis favors Valencia with a 42% win probability
- Valencia's current form, with 3 wins in the last 5 games, is stronger than Sevilla's 1 win in the same period
- The historical record favors Valencia, who have recorded 2 wins and 3 draws in 5 head-to-head matches
Risk Factors
- Valencia concedes an average of 2.7 goals per away game, indicating a defensive weakness
- Sevilla records only 3.0 shots on target per game on average, suggesting a lack of offensive punch
Overview
Sevilla (15th place, 31 points) host Valencia (14th place, 32 points) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. The La Liga match takes place on March 21, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, separated by only one point.
Form
Sevilla's form in their last five matches is DWDDL, comprising one win, three draws, and one loss. Their most recent game resulted in a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. Valencia's form in their last five away matches is WLWWL, which includes three wins and two losses. Valencia's last game also ended in a loss.
Statistics
Sevilla averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per game. At home, the average is 1.36 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded. Valencia averages 1.07 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Away from home, their defense is more vulnerable with 2.7 goals conceded per game, while their offense scores 1.1 goals. Sevilla kept 5 clean sheets, Valencia 7. At the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, an average of 2.0 goals per game are scored, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches, and only 1 out of 5 matches having over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In five head-to-head matches, Sevilla has recorded no home wins, while Valencia secured two victories and three matches ended in a draw. The goal difference in these encounters is 3:5 in favour of Valencia. The last meeting on December 7, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw. Valencia has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes.
Key Players
For Sevilla, Djibril Sow (5 season goals, 1 assist, recently 1 goal in 61 minutes, rising form), Rubén Vargas (3 season goals, 4 assists, recently 1 goal in 239 minutes, declining form), and Alexis Sánchez (3 season goals, 1 assist) are important. For Valencia, Hugo Duro (8 season goals), Luis Rioja (2 season goals, 4 assists), and Largie Ramazani (4 season goals, 1 assist, recently 0 goals in 9 minutes, declining form) are key players.
Goalkeepers
Odysseas Vlachodimos will be in goal for Sevilla. The team has recorded 5 clean sheets this season. For Valencia, Stole Dimitrievski will occupy the goalkeeper position. Valencia has kept 7 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Sevilla has scored an average of 1.36 goals at home and conceded 1.43 goals. Valencia has conceded an average of 2.7 goals away and scored 1.1 goals. The Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in recent matches. Notably, both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, but only 1 out of 5 games had more than 2.5 goals. This indicates generally high-scoring games with both sides scoring, but rarely high total goal counts.