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La Liga

Mallorca - Real Madrid

04/04/2026, 02:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Mallorca
1.3
Total xG
3.1
Real Madrid
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MALRM

Mallorca

Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 2, 16 places gap)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Mateo Joseph on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Real Madrid

Attack strength (1.51x league average)
+0.73
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 18, 16 places gap)
+0.13
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.05
Vinicius Junior on the bench (11 goals, 5 assists)
Federico Valverde not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists)
Fran GarcĂ­a on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.3 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

26%

Away Win

49%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

51%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Form Trend: Real Madrid shows a positive form development with 5 consecutive wins, while Mallorca has a negative trend
  • Offensive Power: Real Madrid is offensively strong with an average of 6.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Mallorca's 4.2
  • H2H Dominance: Real Madrid won 4 of the last 5 direct encounters against Mallorca, underscoring their historical superiority
Risk Factors
  • Real Madrid Injury List: Real Madrid must do without key players such as F. Valverde Dipetta (Red Card Suspension), T. Courtois (Thigh Muscle Strain), and R. Silva de Goes (Unknown Injury)
  • Potential for Both Teams to Score: The pipeline analysis indicates a 61% probability that both teams will score and an 82% probability for over 1.5 goals, which could imply an open game with conceded goals for the favorite
Overview

Mallorca (18th place, 28 points) host Real Madrid (2nd place, 69 points) at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga on April 4, 2026, 4:15 PM

The mathematical analysis indicates Real Madrid as favorites with a 49% probability of an away win

Mallorca is fighting relegation, while Real Madrid is competing for the league title

Form

Mallorca's form in the last five matches is LLDWL

This translates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Mallorca's last appearance was a loss

The form trend is analyzed as negative

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Real Madrid shows an impressive form of WWWWW in their last five matches

They recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

Their last game ended in a win

Real Madrid's form trend is rated as positive

Statistics

Mallorca scores an average of 1.17 goals per game this season and concedes 1.62 goals

They kept 3 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 19 games, and 19 games had over 2.5 goals

Real Madrid has a season average of 2.17 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded

The team achieved 11 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 16 games, and 18 games ended with over 2.5 goals

In home games, Mallorca scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.00 goals

Real Madrid scores an average of 2.25 goals in away games and concedes 1.17 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Mallorca has 0 wins, Real Madrid has 4 wins, and there was 1 draw

Mallorca scored 3 goals, while Real Madrid scored 7 goals

The last encounter on August 30, 2025, ended in a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid

Real Madrid has dominated recent meetings

Key Players

For Mallorca, Vedat Muriqi (Attacker) is a key player with 18 goals and 1 assist this season and an average rating of 7.19

He scored 2 goals in his last 5 games

SamĂș Costa (Midfielder) has 5 goals and a rating of 6.83, with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Pablo Torre (Midfielder) has 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.73, with 2 goals in the last 5 games

For Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé (Attacker) stands out with 23 goals and 4 assists this season and a rating of 7.81

He scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Arda GĂŒler (Midfielder) provided 4 goals and 8 assists with a rating of 7.38, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Dean Huijsen (Defender) has 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.05, with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Mallorca's goalkeeper Leo RomĂĄn has played in 24 games with an average rating of 6.81

Mallorca recorded 3 clean sheets this season

For Real Madrid, goalkeeper Andriy Lunin has played in 2 games with an average rating of 6.71

Real Madrid achieved a total of 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Estadi Mallorca Son Moix recorded an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 80% of the games, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals

Mallorca scored an average of 1.17 home goals and conceded 1.00 home goals

Real Madrid scored an average of 2.25 away goals and conceded 1.17 away goals

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