🇪🇸

La Liga

Atlético Madrid - FC Barcelona

04/04/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlético Madrid
1.9
Total xG
3.6
FC Barcelona
1.7
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
AMFB

Atlético Madrid

Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+0.53
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.16
Julián Alvarez on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists)
Marcos Llorente not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Matteo Ruggeri on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Ademola Lookman on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Dávid Hancko on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

FC Barcelona

Attack strength (1.72x league average)
+0.65
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (3 goals/match)
+0.10
Raphinha not in squad (11 goals, 3 assists)
Robert Lewandowski on the bench (11 goals, 1 assists)
Marc Bernal on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

24%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win for Atlético Madrid with 43%, but also indicates a high-scoring game with 69% for Over 2.5 goals and 70% for Both Teams to Score
  • FC Barcelona has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Atlético Madrid, including a clear 3:0 victory in their most recent encounter
  • Atlético Madrid's offense shows a positive trend, scoring an average of 2.6 goals in recent matches, which is higher than their season average of 2.1 goals
Overview

Atlético Madrid (4th place, 57 points) host FC Barcelona (1st place, 73 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. The La Liga match will take place on April 4, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the league title race and Champions League qualification.

Form

Atlético Madrid's form in the last five matches is WWWLL with 3 wins and 2 losses. The last match resulted in a loss, and they have two consecutive losses. FC Barcelona shows a form of WDWWW with 4 wins and 1 draw. The last match was a win, and the team is on a streak of three consecutive wins. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.69 goals per game and concedes 0.97 goals per game this season. They kept 12 clean sheets. In 14 matches, both teams scored, and 13 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. At home, they average 1.7 goals scored and concede 0.6 goals. FC Barcelona is stronger offensively, scoring an average of 2.69 goals per game and also conceding 0.97 goals. They kept 12 clean sheets. In 17 matches, both teams scored, and 23 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. Away from home, Barcelona scores an average of 2.58 goals and concedes 1.67 goals. At the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, the last 5 matches saw an average of 4.0 goals per game, and in 4 out of 5 matches both teams scored. 3 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the previous 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Atlético Madrid secured 1 win, while FC Barcelona celebrated 4 victories. There were no draws. The goal difference stands at 7:11 in favor of FC Barcelona. The last encounter on March 3, 2026, was won by FC Barcelona with a 3:0 scoreline. FC Barcelona has dominated recent meetings.

Key Players

For Atlético Madrid, Antoine Griezmann with 6 goals and 1 assist this season (most recently 1 goal, 2 assists in 5 games) and an average rating of 7.18, Giuliano Simeone with 3 goals and 6 assists (most recently 0 goals, 1 assist in 5 games) and a rating of 7.07, as well as Nahuel Molina, who recently scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games and shows a rising form trend, are key players. Not nominated are Julián Alvarez (8G/4A), Marcos Llorente (0G/4A), Matteo Ruggeri (0G/3A), Ademola Lookman (2G/0A), and Dávid Hancko (0G/2A). For FC Barcelona, Lamine Yamal stands out with 14 goals and 9 assists this season (most recently 1 goal, 1 assist in 5 games), Fermín López with 5 goals and 8 assists (most recently 1 goal, 3 assists in 5 games), and Dani Olmo with 7 goals and 6 assists (most recently 1 goal, 0 assists in 5 games). Ronald Araujo showed 1 goal, 0 assists in the last 5 games and a rising form trend. Not nominated are Raphinha (11G/3A), Robert Lewandowski (11G/1A), and Marc Bernal (2G/1A).

Goalkeepers

Atlético Madrid's goalkeeper Juan Musso has 3 season appearances and an average rating of 7.15. The team achieved 12 clean sheets this season. For FC Barcelona, Joan García is in goal, with 23 season appearances and an average rating of 7.17. The visitors also recorded 12 clean sheets this season.

Influences

The Riyadh Air Metropolitano is known for generally high-scoring matches with an average of 4.0 goals per game and 80% of matches seeing both teams score. Atlético Madrid shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.7 goals scored and only 0.6 goals conceded. FC Barcelona, on the other hand, is strong offensively away from home, scoring an average of 2.58 goals but also conceding 1.67 goals.

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