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La Liga

Real Oviedo - Sevilla

04/05/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Real Oviedo
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Sevilla
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ROSEV

Real Oviedo

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.01

Sevilla

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Alexis Sánchez on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Lucien Agoumé not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Gabriel Suazo on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

32%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a 38% probability for a home win and 69% for home win or draw
  • Home offense: Real Oviedo scores only an average of 0.67 goals per game at home, representing the league's lowest rate
  • Away defense: Sevilla concedes an average of 1.93 goals per game away from home
Risk Factors
  • Real Oviedo scores only an average of 0.67 goals per game at home
  • Sevilla concedes an average of 1.93 goals per game away from home
  • Sevilla averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Real Oviedo (20th place, 21 points) host Sevilla (17th place, 31 points) at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

La Liga match on April 5, 2026, 6:30 PM

Real Oviedo is fighting against relegation, while Sevilla tries to move away from the relegation zone

Form

Real Oviedo's form (LLDWL) across all competitions shows 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

The last result was a loss

Sevilla (WDDLL) recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games across all competitions

Sevilla has suffered two consecutive losses recently

Statistics

Real Oviedo scores an average of 0.69 goals and concedes 1.66 goals per game this season

At home, they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded

Sevilla scores an average of 1.28 goals and concedes 1.69 goals per game this season

Away, the average is 1.29 goals scored and 1.93 goals conceded

Real Oviedo kept 7 clean sheets, Sevilla 5

The Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere sees an average of 1.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches at this stadium

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Real Oviedo and Sevilla so far

Sevilla won this single match with a score of 4:0

Sevilla showed a dominant performance in that game

Key Players

Real Oviedo's offense is led by Federico Viñas, who scored 6 goals and 1 assist in 25 appearances and shows stable form

Ilyas Chaira contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in 27 games and also shows stable form

Thiago Fernández provided 3 assists in 8 games with stable form

For Sevilla, Akor Adams is the top scorer with 7 goals and 4 assists in 24 appearances and is in stable form

Rubén Vargas scored 3 goals and 4 assists in 15 games, but his form is declining

Djibril Sow contributed 5 goals and 1 assist in 25 games and is in stable form

Not nominated for Sevilla are: Alexis Sánchez (3 goals, 1 assist), Lucien Agoumé (1 goal, 2 assists), Gabriel Suazo (0 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Aarón Escandell is Real Oviedo's goalkeeper and recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Odysseas Vlachodimos is Sevilla's goalkeeper and achieved 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Real Oviedo scores an average of 0.67 goals at home and concedes 1.56 goals

The Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere has seen an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches

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