La Liga
Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna
04/05/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Deportivo Alavés
Osasuna
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
29%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a higher win probability of 44% for Deportivo Alavés
- Deportivo Alavés shows a positive development in goal production, currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.4)
- Osasuna was more dominant in the last 5 direct encounters, winning 3 matches
Risk Factors
- Deportivo Alavés has only 63% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available, as Lucas Boyé (9G/1A) and Carles Aleñá (0G/4A) are not in the lineup
- Osasuna concedes an average of 2.38 goals per away game
- Osasuna's goal production recently stands at 1.2 goals, which is lower than their season average of 1.6 goals
Overview
Deportivo Alavés (15th place, 31 points) host Osasuna (11th place, 37 points) at Estadio de Mendizorroza
La Liga match on April 5, 2026, 9:00 PM
Alavés is fighting for survival, while Osasuna aims for a mid-table finish
Form
Deportivo Alavés has shown a form of DLLDW in their last five games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Alavés recently secured a 4-3 victory against Celta de Vigo
Osasuna has a form of WLDLW in their last five matches
This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Osasuna won their last game 1-0 against Girona
Statistics
Deportivo Alavés scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes 1.41 goals
Osasuna scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.21 goals per match
Alavés has achieved 3 clean sheets this season, Osasuna 7
Alavés scores an average of 1.06 goals at home and concedes 1.00 goal
Osasuna concedes an average of 2.38 goals per away game
The Estadio de Mendizorroza has seen an average of 3.2 total goals in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 0 wins for Alavés and 3 wins for Osasuna, with 2 draws
The goal difference of 3:9 clearly favors Osasuna
Osasuna won the last encounter 3-0 on December 20, 2025
Osasuna has been more dominant in recent direct duels
Key Players
For Deportivo Alavés, Toni Martínez is a key attacking force with 7 season goals and 3 assists
Victor Parada has provided 3 season assists, and Antonio Blanco contributed 1 goal and 1 assist
Toni Martínez shows a rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games
For Osasuna, Ante Budimir is the top scorer with 14 season goals
Rubén García has scored 2 goals and provided 5 assists
Aimar Oroz recorded 2 season assists and shows a rising form in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
In goal for Deportivo Alavés is Antonio Sivera, who has recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Osasuna's goalkeeper Sergio Herrera achieved 7 clean sheets in 29 season games
Influences
Home team Deportivo Alavés scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 1.00 goal at Estadio de Mendizorroza
Osasuna concedes an average of 2.38 goals per away game
The history at Estadio de Mendizorroza shows an average of 3.2 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of matches at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%