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La Liga

Getafe - Athletic Club

04/05/2026, 12:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Getafe
0.9
Total xG
1.8
Athletic Club
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

0:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
GETAC

Getafe

Attack weakness (0.44x league average)
-0.98
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.01
Kiko FemenĂ­a not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Abdel Abqar not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Athletic Club

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.19
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

36%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

56%

Under 1.5

44%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The model calculates the highest probability for a draw at 36%, with 0.87 expected goals for Getafe and 0.95 for Athletic Club
  • Away defensive weakness: Athletic Club concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Getafe's home strength: Getafe has secured three wins in their last five games and boasts a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.79 goals per home game
Risk Factors
  • Low goal potential at venue: The venue averages only 1.4 goals per game, and both teams score in just 1 of 5 matches
  • Athletic Club's stagnant offense: Athletic Club's goal production has recently stalled at 0.6 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
Overview

Getafe (8th place, 38 points) hosts Athletic Club (10th place, 38 points) at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. The La Liga match takes place on April 5, 2026, 2:00 PM. Mathematical analysis suggests a tight game, with a draw being the most probable outcome at 36%, followed by an away win at 34% and a home win at 30%. Few goals are expected, with 0.87 for Getafe and 0.95 for Athletic Club.

Form

Getafe's form in the last five matches shows three wins and two losses (LWWLW). Their last match was a 2-1 away win against Espanyol, preceded by a 0-1 away loss against Atlético Madrid. Athletic Club has achieved one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five games (DLLLW). Their last game was a 2-1 home win against Real Betis, following a 0-3 away loss to Girona. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Getafe averages 0.86 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.07 goals. At home, they score 0.86 goals and concede 0.79 goals per home game. Athletic Club averages 1.1 goals scored per game and concedes 1.41 goals. Away from home, the team scores 1.08 goals per game but concedes an average of 2.0 goals. At the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, the last five matches have seen an average of 1.4 total goals. Both teams scored in only 1 of 5 games, and only 1 of 5 games finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Getafe secured one win, Athletic Club two wins, and there were two draws. Getafe scored four goals in these matches, while Athletic Club netted seven goals. The last meeting on October 25, 2025, ended in a 1-0 home win for Athletic Club. The overall record indicates a slight dominance of the away team in recent direct duels.

Key Players

For Getafe, Luis Milla is an important midfielder with nine season assists and a season average rating of 7.16. Martín Satriano scored two goals in the last five games with an average rating of 7.03. Mauro Arambarri has six season goals and two assists, and shows stable form. Athletic Club relies on Iñaki Williams, who contributed one goal and two assists in the last five games. Oihan Sancet scored one goal in his last five matches and shows rising form. Dani Vivian also scored one goal in his last five games and shows rising form. Not selected for Getafe: Kiko Femenía and Abdel Abqar. Not selected for Athletic Club: Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta.

Goalkeepers

David Soria of Getafe has kept eight clean sheets in 29 appearances this season and shows rising form (last 5 games: 7.28). Unai SimĂłn of Athletic Club recorded five clean sheets in 29 appearances and his form is stable (last 5 games: 6.80).

Influences

The Coliseum Alfonso Pérez is known for an average of 1.4 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 1 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 1 of 5 matches. This suggests a tendency for low-scoring encounters. Getafe shows a solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.79 goals. Athletic Club, however, concedes an average of 2.0 goals away from home, indicating vulnerability when playing on the road.

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