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La Liga

Valencia - Celta de Vigo

04/05/2026, 02:15 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Valencia
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Celta de Vigo
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
VALCDV

Valencia

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Filip Ugrinic on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Umar Sadiq on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Celta de Vigo

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Borja Iglesias on the bench (11 goals, 2 assists)
Williot Swedberg on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Celta de Vigo is slightly favored with a 36% win probability, while Valencia is at 33%
  • Head-to-Head Record: Celta de Vigo historically has the upper hand with 3 wins in the last 5 encounters, including a recent 4:1 victory
  • Offensive Efficiency: Celta de Vigo averages 4.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, compared to Valencia's 3.6
Overview

Valencia (13th place, 35 points) host Celta de Vigo (6th place, 41 points) at the Estadio de Mestalla for their La Liga match on April 5, 2026, 4:15 PM

Celta de Vigo is fighting for a European spot, while Valencia is in the mid-table

Form

Valencia's form across all competitions is LWWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This means 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last match result was a win

Celta de Vigo shows a form of LDDWL

This indicates 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Their last match result was a loss

Statistics

Valencia averages 1.1 goals scored per game and concedes 1.45 goals per game

At home, Valencia scores an average of 1.12 goals and concedes 0.88 goals per home game

Celta de Vigo averages 1.41 goals scored per game and concedes 1.21 goals per game

Away from home, Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes 1.08 goals per away game

Both teams scored in 15 of Valencia's 29 games and in 19 of Celta de Vigo's 29 games

At Estadio de Mestalla, the last 5 games averaged 3.2 goals per game

In 3 out of 5 of these games, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 1, Celta de Vigo won 3, and there was 1 draw

Celta de Vigo has been the recently dominant team in direct encounters

The goal difference in these 5 games is 7:13 in favor of Celta de Vigo

The last meeting on January 3, 2026, ended with a 4:1 victory for Celta de Vigo

Key Players

For Valencia, Hugo Duro is a key player with 9 season goals, and Luis Rioja with 5 season assists

Largie Ramazani shows rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 games

For Celta de Vigo, Ferran JutglĂ  is in rising form with 7 season goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Óscar Mingueza provided 4 season assists and 2 assists in the last 5 matches

Hugo Álvarez contributed 3 season goals

Goalkeepers

Valencia's goalkeeper, Stole Dimitrievski, has made 11 appearances this season and kept 4 clean sheets at home

Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, Ionuț Radu, has made 29 appearances and kept 5 clean sheets away from home

Both teams have achieved 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Estadio de Mestalla has seen an average of 3.2 goals in the last 5 matches

In 60% of these matches, both teams scored, and in 60%, more than 2.5 goals were scored

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