La Liga
Girona - Villarreal
04/06/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.6
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
9%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Girona
Villarreal
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
29%
Away Win
46%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
54%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Villarreal is the favorite to win according to the mathematical analysis with a 46% probability.
- The visitors possess superior offensive output, averaging 1.82 away goals compared to Girona's 1.07 home goals. Their counter-attacking style has resulted in an average of 5.4 shots on target in their last 5 games.
- Villarreal has historically dominated direct encounters, including a clear 5-0 victory in their last match.
Risk Factors
- Villarreal concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game.
Overview
Girona (14th place, 34 points) host Villarreal (3rd place, 58 points) at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. This La Liga match is on April 6, 2026, 9:00 PM. Villarreal is competing for a Champions League spot, while Girona is in the middle of the table.
Form
Girona shows mixed form in their last five matches (Form: DLDWL) with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. The team is currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals), with a positive form trend. Their last match resulted in a loss. Villarreal, however, has been in better form away from home with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss (Form: WLWDW). The team consistently scores (~1.7 goals per game), and their form trend is stable. Villarreal won their last away game.
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Girona scores an average of 1.07 goals per home game and concedes 1.4 goals. Villarreal is stronger offensively away from home, with an average of 1.82 goals scored, but also concedes a higher number of goals (1.91 per away game). The Estadi Municipal de Montilivi has seen an average of 2.4 goals per match in the last five games. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the 5 head-to-head matches between these two teams, Villarreal has dominated with 3 wins compared to Girona's 1 win and 1 draw. The goal difference is clearly in Villarreal's favor at 10:4. Their last encounter on August 24, 2025, ended with a decisive 5-0 victory for Villarreal.
Key Players
For Girona, Vladyslav Vanat (9 season goals, 1 assist), Viktor Tsygankov (5 season goals, 4 assists), and Azzedine Ounahi (4 season goals, 2 assists) are key offensive players. Vanat shows stable form with 2 goals in his last 5 games. Tsygankov recorded 2 assists in his last 5 games with stable form. Ounahi shows a declining form. Not nominated for Girona are Thomas Lemar (2G/1A) and Hugo Rincón (1G/1A). For Villarreal, Gerard Moreno (8 season goals, 3 goals in last 5 games), Georges Mikautadze (9 season goals, 5 assists), and Nicolas Pépé (5 season goals, 4 assists) stand out. Pépé is in rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 games, while Mikautadze has stable form and Moreno also shows stable form with a strong 3 goals in his last 4 games. Not nominated for Villarreal is Sergi Cardona (0G/3A).
Goalkeepers
Paulo Gazzaniga of Girona has made 26 appearances and kept 5 clean sheets. His form is rising. Luiz JĂșnior of Villarreal also played in 26 games and achieved 8 clean sheets, but his form is declining.
Influences
Girona has a home advantage at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. The stadium favors matches with an average of 2.4 goals per game. The home team scored an average of 1.07 goals and conceded 1.4 goals. Villarreal scored an average of 1.82 goals away but also conceded 1.91 goals. The match will be played on grass.