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La Liga

Elche - Valencia

04/11/2026, 02:15 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Elche
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Valencia
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ELCVAL

Elche

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.01
Álvaro Rodríguez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Pedro Bigas not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Marc Aguado not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Valencia

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Javi Guerra on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 94% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

27%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical prediction: Valencia has a 45% win probability, Elche only 29%
  • Form advantage: Valencia shows a positive form trend, while Elche exhibits a negative tendency
  • Offensive performance: Valencia's goal production has recently increased (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.13 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Valencia concedes an average of 2.45 goals per away game
  • Elche's goal production has recently stalled (1.2 goals) compared to their season average (1.27 goals)
  • Elche had only 1 win in their last 5 league matches
Overview

Elche (18th place, 29 points) host Valencia (14th place, 35 points) at Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero. The La Liga match is on April 11, 2026, 4:15 PM. Elche are battling against relegation, while Valencia aims to stabilize in mid-table

Form

Elche's form in their last five league matches is DLLWL

This translates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Their last game was a 0-1 loss away against Rayo Vallecano

Before that, they secured a 2-1 home win against Mallorca

Valencia's form in their last five league matches is WWLWL

This indicates 3 wins and 2 losses

Their last match was a 2-3 home loss against Celta de Vigo

Previously, they won 2-0 away against Sevilla

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Elche has scored an average of 1.27 goals per game this season and conceded 1.57 goals per game

At home, they average 1.26 goals scored and 0.84 goals conceded

The team kept 6 clean sheets and both teams scored in 21 matches

Valencia has scored an average of 1.13 goals per game and conceded 1.50 goals per game

Away, they average 1.18 goals scored and 2.45 goals conceded

Valencia has kept 8 clean sheets and both teams scored in 16 matches

The Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero sees an average of 3.0 goals per game

In 4 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 4 out of 5 games, there were over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

The teams have met in 1 head-to-head match so far

Neither team has secured a win, with 1 draw recorded

A total of 2 goals were scored in this single encounter, with each team scoring 1 goal

The last meeting ended in a 1:1 draw on January 10, 2026

Key Players

For Elche, Rafa Mir with 8 goals and 0 assists, and GermĂĄn Valera with 4 goals and 4 assists are important players this season

André Silva contributed 7 goals and has a seasonal average rating of 6.85

For Valencia, Luis Rioja stands out with 2 goals and 5 assists

Largie Ramazani has scored 5 goals and 1 assist

Guido RodrĂ­guez has 2 goals and a seasonal average rating of 7.12

Goalkeepers

MatĂ­as Dituro is Elche's goalkeeper and has an average rating of 7.13 in 14 season appearances

Elche has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Stole Dimitrievski is Valencia's goalkeeper and has an average rating of 6.82 in 12 season appearances

Valencia has recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Elche has scored an average of 1.26 goals at home and conceded only 0.84 goals

The Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero shows a high goal average, with 3.0 goals per game on average

In 80% of matches at the stadium, both teams score, and 80% have over 2.5 goals

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