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La Liga

FC Barcelona - Espanyol

04/11/2026, 04:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Barcelona
2.7
Total xG
3.5
Espanyol
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

1:1

7%
What influences the xG?
FBESP

FC Barcelona

Attack strength (1.61x league average)
+1.43
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.12
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.12
Dani Olmo on the bench (7 goals, 7 assists)
Raphinha not in squad (11 goals, 3 assists)
Robert Lewandowski on the bench (12 goals, 1 assists)
JoĂŁo Cancelo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Marc Bernal not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Espanyol

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.41
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.41
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.08
RamĂłn Terrats on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

77%

Draw

16%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

23%

No Draw

84%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • FC Barcelona's Strong Home Performance: The mathematical analysis predicts 2.69 expected home goals, supported by an average of 2.61 goals scored in home games
  • Espanyol's Weak Away Form: Espanyol has failed to secure a win in their last 5 away matches and concedes an average of 1.53 goals per away game
  • FC Barcelona's Historical Dominance: Barcelona has won all 3 direct encounters with a goal difference of 7:1
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time for FC Barcelona: The team had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • FC Barcelona's recent home loss: The last home defeat (0-2 against AtlĂ©tico Madrid) breaks their otherwise strong form streak
  • Missing key players for FC Barcelona: Dani Olmo, Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, JoĂŁo Cancelo, and Marc Bernal are absent, affecting 12% of the usual starting XI's goal contribution
Overview

FC Barcelona (1st place, 76 points) host Espanyol (10th place, 38 points) at Camp Nou. This La Liga match takes place on April 11, 2026, 6:30 PM. Barcelona, as league leaders, are on course for the championship, while Espanyol are fighting for a good position in the middle of the table

Form

FC Barcelona show strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games. Their most recent match was a 0-2 loss against Atlético Madrid. Prior to that, they secured 4 consecutive wins, including a 7-2 against Newcastle United and a 5-2 against Sevilla. Espanyol have not registered a win in their last 5 games, with 3 draws and 2 losses. Their most recent result was a 0-0 away draw against Real Betis. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Barcelona scores an average of 2.67 goals per game and concedes 0.97 goals. Their home record is particularly strong with an average of 2.61 goals scored and only 0.44 goals conceded per home game. They kept 12 clean sheets. Espanyol scores an average of 1.2 goals per game and concedes 1.47 goals. Away from home, they also score 1.2 goals but concede 1.53 goals per match. Espanyol kept 8 clean sheets. At Camp Nou, an average of 4.4 goals are scored per game. Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the matches

Head-to-Head

In the 3 direct encounters so far, FC Barcelona has dominated the statistics. They won all 3 matches, while Espanyol remained without a win or a draw. Barcelona scored 7 goals and conceded only 1 goal. The last meeting on January 3, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Barcelona

Key Players

For FC Barcelona, Lamine Yamal is a key offensive player with 14 goals and 9 assists this season, although his form is slightly declining. Ferran Torres contributed 12 goals and 1 assist. FermĂ­n LĂłpez is crucial in midfield with 5 goals and 8 assists. On Espanyol's side, Kike GarcĂ­a is the top scorer with 6 season goals and 1 assist and shows a rising form curve. Edu ExpĂłsito impresses with 1 goal and 6 assists, also with rising form. Carlos Romero is an important player with 5 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Joan GarcĂ­a guards the goal for FC Barcelona and has kept 12 clean sheets this season. His average rating is 7.16. Espanyol's goalkeeper Manuel Iori achieved 8 clean sheets and has an average rating of 6.94

Influences

Camp Nou is known for high-scoring encounters with an average of 4.4 goals per game. FC Barcelona's home advantage is reflected in an average of 2.61 goals scored and only 0.44 goals conceded in their home games. Espanyol scores an average of 1.2 goals away from home and concedes 1.53 goals per match

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