La Liga
Athletic Club - Villarreal
04/12/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.0
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
15%1:0
12%0:1
11%2:0
7%What influences the xG?
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
34%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Villarreal's significantly better season performance and higher league position (3rd place vs 11th place)
- Athletic Club's poor current form with only one win and four losses in their last five games, coupled with low goal production (avg. 0.4 goals)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very tight, low-scoring game with a 34% probability for a draw and only 33% for over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
- Villarreal is missing Georges Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro, Nicolas Pépé, and Alfonso Pedraza, leaving only 63% of their goal threat available
- Villarreal concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview
Athletic Club (11th place, 38 points) hosts Villarreal (3rd place, 58 points) at San Mamés Barria. The La Liga match takes place on April 12, 2026, at 9:00 PM. Athletic Club aims to close the gap in the standings, while Villarreal looks to defend its top position.
Form
Athletic Club shows a weak trend with a form of LLLWL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses) from all competitions, with the last game ending in a loss. Villarreal has a form of LWDWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and also lost their last match. The home side has won only one of their last five matches, while the visitors recorded two wins.
Statistics
Athletic Club scores an average of 1.07 goals and concedes 1.43 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.06 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per game. Villarreal is stronger offensively with an average of 1.8 goals per game but concedes 1.17 goals. Away from home, Villarreal scores 1.82 goals and concedes 2.0 goals per game. At San Mamés Barria, an average of 2.8 goals are scored per game. Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were seen in 3 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for Athletic Club, 1 win for Villarreal, and 2 draws. The goal difference is 6:4 in favor of Athletic Club. The last encounter on September 27, 2025, ended in a 1:0 victory for Villarreal.
Key Players
For Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta (6 goals, 1 assist), Oihan Sancet (3 goals, 0 assists) with rising form, and Dani Vivian (1 goal, 0 assists) are important players. For Villarreal, Gerard Moreno (8 goals, 0 assists), Santi Comesaña (3 goals, 5 assists), and Tajon Buchanan (6 goals, 1 assist) are key players. Not nominated for Athletic Club is Ălex Berenguer (2 goals/3 assists).
Goalkeepers
Athletic Club's goalkeeper Unai SimĂłn has recorded 5 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.77. Luiz JĂșnior, Villarreal's goalkeeper, has 8 clean sheets and an average rating of 6.9. Unai SimĂłn's form is stable, while Luiz JĂșnior's form is declining.
Influences
Athletic Club scores an average of 1.06 home goals and concedes 0.94 home goals per game, indicating a slight home advantage. San Mamés Barria stadium sees an average of 2.8 goals per game. In 60% of the last 5 matches at San Mamés, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were registered.