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La Liga

Celta de Vigo - Real Oviedo

04/12/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Celta de Vigo
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Real Oviedo
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CDVRO

Celta de Vigo

Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 20, 14 places gap)
+0.10
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Ferran JutglĂ  on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
Óscar Mingueza on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Hugo Álvarez not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Ilaix Moriba on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Hugo Sotelo on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Real Oviedo

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.81
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 6, 14 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.04
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 55% probability of a home win for Celta de Vigo
  • Celta de Vigo is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.6 goals per game)
  • Real Oviedo scores only 0.7 goals per game on average this season and is at the bottom of the table
Risk Factors
  • Celta de Vigo faces a reduced starting lineup strength, as only 64% of the usual goal threat is available
  • Celta de Vigo has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Real Oviedo registered an average of 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Celta de Vigo (6th place, 44 points) hosts Real Oviedo (20th place, 24 points) at Estadio de BalaĂ­dos

La Liga match on April 12, 2026, 6:30 PM

Celta is fighting for a European spot, while Real Oviedo is battling against relegation

Form

Celta de Vigo's form in the last five games is DWLWL

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last match ended in a loss

Real Oviedo's form in the last five games is LDWLW

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last match was a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Celta de Vigo has scored an average of 1.47 goals per game and conceded 1.23 goals per game this season

At home, the team scored 1.44 goals and conceded 1.31 goals per home game

Real Oviedo has scored an average of 0.7 goals per game and conceded 1.6 goals per game this season

Away, they scored 0.7 goals and conceded 1.7 goals per away game

At Estadio de BalaĂ­dos, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Celta de Vigo and Real Oviedo so far

This ended in a 0-0 draw on December 20, 2025

The record is even

Key Players

For Celta de Vigo, Williot Swedberg (4 season goals, 3 assists, Ø 6.72 rating) and Javi Rueda (2 season goals, 4 assists, Ø 6.8 rating) are important attacking forces

Pablo Durån has 2 season goals and 2 assists with an Ø 6.64 rating

For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas is the top scorer with 7 season goals and 1 assist (Ø 6.98 rating)

Ilyas Chaira has 4 season goals and 1 assist (Ø 6.65 rating)

Alberto Reina contributed 3 season goals and 1 assist (Ø 6.71 rating) to the offense

Goalkeepers

Ionuț Radu is in goal for Celta de Vigo, having kept 8 clean sheets this season

For Real Oviedo, AarĂłn Escandell is the goalkeeper, who also achieved 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.44 goals at home and concedes 1.31 goals

At Estadio de BalaĂ­dos, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games

The playing surface is grass

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