La Liga
Real Sociedad - Deportivo Alavés
04/11/2026, 12:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.8
1.0
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
6%1:2
6%What influences the xG?
Real Sociedad
Deportivo Alavés
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
26%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Analysis: The mathematical analysis predicts Real Sociedad to win with a 53% probability
- Home Offense: Real Sociedad is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.6 goals per game), indicating a positive form trend
- Weak Away Defense: Deportivo Alavés conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in recent matches
Risk Factors
- Real Sociedad Squad Impact: The absence of Mikel Oyarzabal and Gonçalo Guedes means only 72% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available
- Deportivo Alavés Squad Impact: Lucas Boyé and Carles Aleñá are missing, reducing the starting XI's goal threat to 72%
- Limited data availability for duels in the last 5 matches
Overview
Real Sociedad (7th place, 41 points) host Deportivo Alavés (15th place, 32 points) at Anoeta Stadium. La Liga match on April 11, 2026, 2:00 PM. Real Sociedad aims to connect with European qualification spots, while Alavés needs crucial points in the relegation battle
Form
Real Sociedad has a form of WLWLW in their last five matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)
Real Sociedad recently won 2-0 at home against Levante
Deportivo Alavés has a form of LLDWD in their last five matches (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Deportivo Alavés recently drew 2-2 at home against Osasuna
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Real Sociedad has scored an average of 1.53 goals and conceded 1.50 goals per game this season
Deportivo Alavés has scored an average of 1.07 goals and conceded 1.43 goals per game
Real Sociedad has scored an average of 1.53 goals at home and conceded 1.11 goals
Deportivo Alavés has conceded an average of 2.08 goals per away game
Real Sociedad kept 3 clean sheets, Deportivo Alavés also kept 3
At Anoeta Stadium, an average of 3.4 goals have been scored in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Alavés holds a slight lead with 3 wins compared to Real Sociedad's 2 wins
The goal difference is 5:6 in favor of Deportivo Alavés
The last encounter on February 4, 2026, saw Real Sociedad win 3-2 away
Key Players
For Real Sociedad, Brais Méndez is a key player with 6 goals and 2 assists this season, showing stable form
Carlos Soler (4 goals, 3 assists) is in rising form with one assist in his last 4 games
Orri Óskarsson (4 goals, 0 assists) shows stable form, having scored 2 goals in his last 4 games
For Deportivo Alavés, Toni Martínez (8 goals, 3 assists) is important with rising form (2 goals, 1 assist in his last 5 games)
Victor Parada (0 goals, 3 assists) shows stable form and provided 2 assists in his last 5 games
Abde Rebbach (1 goal, 1 assist) is in rising form and was involved in 2 goals in his last 3 games
Goalkeepers
Álex Remiro is Real Sociedad's goalkeeper with 30 season appearances and 3 clean sheets
His form is rising with an average rating of 7.38 in his last 3 games
Antonio Sivera is Deportivo Alavés' goalkeeper with 30 season appearances and 3 clean sheets
His form is declining with an average rating of 6.51 in his last 5 games
Influences
Real Sociedad shows a solid performance at home with an average of 1.53 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded
Anoeta Stadium has seen an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
The pitch surface is grass