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La Liga

Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano

04/12/2026, 02:15 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Mallorca
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Rayo Vallecano
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
MALRV

Mallorca

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Mateo Joseph not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Rayo Vallecano

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.16
Jorge de Frutos on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists)
Isi PalazĂłn on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Pep ChavarrĂ­a on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Unai LĂłpez on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Pathé Ciss on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 66% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

30%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Mallorca's Home Strength: The model predicts a home win with 40% probability
  • Rayo Vallecano's Dip in Form: Goal production stagnates at an average of 1.0 goals, while the season average is 1.5
  • Home Advantage Mallorca: At home, Mallorca averages 1.21 goals scored and concedes only 1.0 goals
Risk Factors
  • Rayo Vallecano is missing 5 key players, with only 66% of their usual goal threat available (Jorge de Frutos (10G/1A), Isi PalazĂłn (3G/3A), Pep ChavarrĂ­a (1G/2A), Unai LĂłpez (0G/3A), PathĂ© Ciss (2G/0A))
  • Rayo Vallecano has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Mallorca is missing important defenders: A. Raillo Arenas (Thigh Muscle Strain) and M. Valjent (Yellow Card Suspension)
Overview

Mallorca (18th place, 31 points) host Rayo Vallecano (13th place, 35 points) at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix

La Liga match on April 12, 2026, 4:15 PM

Both teams are fighting for crucial points, Mallorca against relegation and Rayo Vallecano for a mid-table spot

Form

Mallorca shows a form of LDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

The last result was a win

Rayo Vallecano records a form of DLLWW

In their last five games, they had 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The team won their last two consecutive matches

Statistics

Mallorca averages 1.2 goals scored per game and concedes 1.6 goals per game this season

Rayo Vallecano averages 0.97 goals scored per game and concedes 1.17 goals per game

At home, Mallorca scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 1.0 goals

Away from home, Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game

Mallorca kept 3 clean sheets, while Rayo Vallecano kept 9 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 20 Mallorca games and 13 Rayo Vallecano games

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix averages 3.0 goals per game

In 4 out of 5 matches at this stadium, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were recorded

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mallorca secured 2 wins, Rayo Vallecano 1 win, and there were 2 draws

Mallorca scored a total of 6 goals, Rayo Vallecano 5 goals

The last encounter on January 11, 2026, ended with a 1:2 victory for Rayo Vallecano

The recent record shows a slight dominance by Mallorca

Key Players

For Mallorca, Vedat Muriqi is a key player with 19 goals and 1 assist in 29 appearances

He scored 3 goals in his last 5 games with stable form

Sergi Darder contributed 1 goal and 4 assists in 30 appearances, with 1 assist in the last 5 games

Pablo Torre shows rising form with 3 goals and 2 assists in 27 appearances, including 2 goals in his last 4 games

For Rayo Vallecano, Álvaro García is an important player with 4 goals and 5 assists in 30 appearances

Florian Lejeune shows rising form with an average rating of 7.10 in 30 appearances and 1 assist in his last 4 games

Randy Nteka scored 1 goal in 2 of his last 5 games and shows rising form

Goalkeepers

For Mallorca, Leo RomĂĄn starts, who has 25 appearances this season and 3 clean sheets

For Rayo Vallecano, Dani CĂĄrdenas is in goal, who has not made any appearances this season

Influences

Mallorca shows solid home defense, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per game

The grass pitch at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix is the usual surface

The stadium tends to favor high-scoring matches with an average of 3.0 goals per game

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