La Liga
Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano
04/12/2026, 02:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.5
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%0:2
5%What influences the xG?
Mallorca
Rayo Vallecano
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
30%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Mallorca's Home Strength: The model predicts a home win with 40% probability
- Rayo Vallecano's Dip in Form: Goal production stagnates at an average of 1.0 goals, while the season average is 1.5
- Home Advantage Mallorca: At home, Mallorca averages 1.21 goals scored and concedes only 1.0 goals
Risk Factors
- Rayo Vallecano is missing 5 key players, with only 66% of their usual goal threat available (Jorge de Frutos (10G/1A), Isi PalazĂłn (3G/3A), Pep ChavarrĂa (1G/2A), Unai LĂłpez (0G/3A), PathĂ© Ciss (2G/0A))
- Rayo Vallecano has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Mallorca is missing important defenders: A. Raillo Arenas (Thigh Muscle Strain) and M. Valjent (Yellow Card Suspension)
Overview
Mallorca (18th place, 31 points) host Rayo Vallecano (13th place, 35 points) at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
La Liga match on April 12, 2026, 4:15 PM
Both teams are fighting for crucial points, Mallorca against relegation and Rayo Vallecano for a mid-table spot
Form
Mallorca shows a form of LDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches
The last result was a win
Rayo Vallecano records a form of DLLWW
In their last five games, they had 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The team won their last two consecutive matches
Statistics
Mallorca averages 1.2 goals scored per game and concedes 1.6 goals per game this season
Rayo Vallecano averages 0.97 goals scored per game and concedes 1.17 goals per game
At home, Mallorca scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 1.0 goals
Away from home, Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game
Mallorca kept 3 clean sheets, while Rayo Vallecano kept 9 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 20 Mallorca games and 13 Rayo Vallecano games
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix averages 3.0 goals per game
In 4 out of 5 matches at this stadium, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were recorded
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mallorca secured 2 wins, Rayo Vallecano 1 win, and there were 2 draws
Mallorca scored a total of 6 goals, Rayo Vallecano 5 goals
The last encounter on January 11, 2026, ended with a 1:2 victory for Rayo Vallecano
The recent record shows a slight dominance by Mallorca
Key Players
For Mallorca, Vedat Muriqi is a key player with 19 goals and 1 assist in 29 appearances
He scored 3 goals in his last 5 games with stable form
Sergi Darder contributed 1 goal and 4 assists in 30 appearances, with 1 assist in the last 5 games
Pablo Torre shows rising form with 3 goals and 2 assists in 27 appearances, including 2 goals in his last 4 games
For Rayo Vallecano, Ălvaro GarcĂa is an important player with 4 goals and 5 assists in 30 appearances
Florian Lejeune shows rising form with an average rating of 7.10 in 30 appearances and 1 assist in his last 4 games
Randy Nteka scored 1 goal in 2 of his last 5 games and shows rising form
Goalkeepers
For Mallorca, Leo RomĂĄn starts, who has 25 appearances this season and 3 clean sheets
For Rayo Vallecano, Dani CĂĄrdenas is in goal, who has not made any appearances this season
Influences
Mallorca shows solid home defense, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per game
The grass pitch at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix is the usual surface
The stadium tends to favor high-scoring matches with an average of 3.0 goals per game