La Liga
Real Madrid - Girona
04/10/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.1
1.0
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
7%3:0
7%What influences the xG?
Real Madrid
Girona
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
59%
Draw
24%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
41%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Real Madrid with a probability of 59%
- Real Madrid dominates head-to-head matches with 4 wins and a goal difference of 13:1 in 5 games
- The home team is significantly better placed in the league (2nd place vs 12th place) and, according to tactical analysis, shows strong offensive performance with an average of 7.6 shots on target per game
Risk Factors
- Real Madrid has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Girona's offensive efficiency is described as average, with 4.0 shots on target per game
Overview
Real Madrid (2nd place, 69 points) host Girona (12th place, 37 points) at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
La Liga match on April 10, 2026, 9:00 PM
The Whites aim to close the gap to league leaders FC Barcelona
Form
Real Madrid's form across all competitions is WWWLL
This translates to 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games
Girona's form is LDWLW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Real Madrid lost their last two matches against FC Bayern MĂŒnchen and Mallorca
Girona won their last match against Villarreal
Statistics
Real Madrid has scored an average of 2.13 goals per game this season and conceded 0.93 goals
At home, they average 2.12 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded per home game
Girona has scored an average of 1.07 goals and conceded 1.47 goals per game
Away from home, Girona's average is 1.07 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded per away game
Real Madrid has 11 clean sheets this season, Girona has 6
The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu has seen an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid secured 4 wins and there was 1 draw
Girona has no wins
Real Madrid scored 13 goals, while Girona scored 1 goal
The last encounter on November 30, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
Real Madrid is described as dominant in recent direct duels
Key Players
For Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé stands out with 23 season goals and 4 assists, though his form is declining
Vinicius Junior scored 11 goals and 5 assists this season
Federico Valverde contributed 4 goals and 7 assists
For Girona, Viktor Tsygankov with 5 goals and 4 assists and Azzedine Ounahi with 4 goals and 2 assists are key players
Claudio Echeverri shows rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games
Goalkeepers
Real Madrid's goalkeeper Andriy Lunin played 3 season games and showed rising form recently
The team has 11 clean sheets this season
Girona's goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga played 27 season games and also showed rising form
The team has 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu is a home advantage for Real Madrid, who average 2.12 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded at home
The venue averages 3.4 goals per game, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches