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La Liga

Sevilla - Atlético de Madrid

04/11/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Sevilla
1.0
Total xG
2.3
Atlético de Madrid
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
SEVADM

Sevilla

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.52
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Djibril Sow on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
José Ángel Carmona not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Alexis Sánchez on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Gabriel Suazo on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Atlético de Madrid

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap)
+0.08
Julián Alvarez on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists)
Giuliano Simeone on the bench (4 goals, 6 assists)
Antoine Griezmann on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Koke  not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Marcos Llorente on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Matteo Ruggeri on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Nahuel Molina on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Dávid Hancko not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Ademola Lookman on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 46% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 2 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

32%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Atlético Madrid's attacking line is severely weakened, with only 46% of the usual goal threat available
  • Sevilla is on a negative run with 3 consecutive losses
  • Atlético Madrid is favored with a win probability of 40%
Risk Factors
  • Atlético Madrid had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Sevilla registered an average of only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Atlético Madrid conceded an average of 1.78 goals per away game
Overview

Sevilla (17th place, 31 points) host Atlético Madrid (4th place, 57 points) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

La Liga match on April 11, 2026, 9:00 PM

Sevilla is fighting relegation, while Atlético is competing for a Champions League spot

Form

Sevilla is in a difficult phase with form 'DDLLL' (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

The team has lost its last 3 games

Atlético Madrid shows a form of 'WLLLW' (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)

After three consecutive losses, Atlético managed to win the last match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sevilla scores an average of 1.27 goals per home game and concedes 1.47 goals

Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.67 goals away and concedes 1.78 goals

In the last 5 matches at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, an average of 2.2 goals per game were scored

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches at this stadium

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Sevilla has 1 win and Atlético Madrid has 4 wins

The goal difference is 5:10 in favor of Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid dominated the recent encounters

The last duel on November 1, 2025, ended with a 3:0 victory for Atlético Madrid

Key Players

For Sevilla, Isaac Romero is in rising form with 4 season goals

Akor Adams contributed 7 goals and 4 assists this season

Oso showed stable form with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games

For Atlético Madrid, Alexander Sørloth is a key player with 10 season goals

Thiago Almada recorded 3 goals and 1 assist this season

Álex Baena contributed 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Odysseas Vlachodimos played 26 games for Sevilla, the team achieved 5 clean sheets

Juan Musso played 4 games for Atlético Madrid, the team managed to keep 12 clean sheets

Influences

Sevilla's home advantage is reflected by 1.27 home goals scored and 1.47 home goals conceded

The Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán has a high 80% rate for 'both teams to score'

An average of 2.2 goals per game are scored at this stadium

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