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Atlético de Madrid – Athletic Club3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
1.42
Total xG
2.51
Athletic Club
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.44 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Julián Alvarez on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nahuel Molina on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Robin Le Normand on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ademola Lookman not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Álex Berenguer on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Oihan Sancet on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Mikel Jauregizar not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Atlético Madrid with a 43% probability
- Defensive Comparison: Atlético's strong home defense (Avg. 0.67 goals conceded) faces Athletic's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.17 goals conceded)
- Head-to-Head: Atlético Madrid has won 3 of the last 5 direct encounters against Athletic Club
Risks
- Tight Schedule: Atlético Madrid has only 3 days since their last match
- Away Weakness: Athletic Club concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away game
- Attacking Weakness: Both teams, according to Advanced Stats, show a negative trend in goal production compared to their season average
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid43%
Draw30%
Athletic Club27%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw73%
Athletic Club or draw57%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid with Nico González: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid: 46% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 13)
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2 · Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 15 C. Lenglet
- 3 M. Ruggeri
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 9 A. Sørloth
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
- 3 D. Vivian Moreno
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 30 A. Rego Mora
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
- 20 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 10 N. Williams Arthuer
- 11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Substitutes
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 23 N. González
- 16 N. Molina Lucero
- 19 J. Álvarez
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 32 J. Franco
- 34 J. Del Romo
- 31 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 21 O. Vaargas
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 22 N. Serrano Galdeano
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 25 U. Iruretagoiena Lertxundi
- 27 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 19 A. Boiro Boiro
- 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
- 14 A. Laporte
- 6 M. Vesga Arruti
- 49 E. Garcia Altuna
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