La Liga
Atlético Madrid - Athletic Club
04/25/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.5
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Atlético Madrid
Athletic Club
The Lab
- 1Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Atlético Madrid: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Atlético Madrid with Nico González: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Atlético Madrid: 46% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 13)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
30%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Atlético Madrid with a 43% probability
- Defensive Comparison: Atlético's strong home defense (Avg. 0.67 goals conceded) faces Athletic's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.17 goals conceded)
- Head-to-Head: Atlético Madrid has won 3 of the last 5 direct encounters against Athletic Club
Risk Factors
- Tight Schedule: Atlético Madrid has only 3 days since their last match
- Away Weakness: Athletic Club concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away game
- Attacking Weakness: Both teams, according to Advanced Stats, show a negative trend in goal production compared to their season average
Overview
Atlético Madrid (4th place, 57 points) host Athletic Club (9th place, 41 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. The La Liga match takes place on April 25, 2026, 8:00 PM. Atlético is fighting for a Champions League spot, while Athletic is positioned in the mid-table.
Form
Atlético Madrid's form in the last five games is WLLDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Their most recent outing was a loss. Athletic Club shows a form of LWLLW in their last five matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Their last appearance ended in a win.
Statistics
Atlético Madrid averages 1.66 goals per game and concedes 1.09 goals per game this season. At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded per home game. Athletic Club averages 1.06 goals per game and concedes 1.41 goals per game. Away from home, Athletic is defensively vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.17 goals per away game. At the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, an average of 3.2 goals are scored per game, and both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Atlético Madrid secured three wins and Athletic Club claimed two, with no draws. The goal difference is even at 5:5. The last match was won by Athletic Club away with a score of 1:0 on December 6, 2025. Overall, the recent head-to-head record is considered dominant for the home team.
Key Players
For Atlético Madrid, Alexander Sørloth (10 goals, 0 assists, form stable), Antoine Griezmann (6 goals, 1 assist, form stable), and Giuliano Simeone (4 goals, 6 assists, form declining) are key players. At Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta (8 goals, 1 assist, form stable), Nico Williams (4 goals, 2 assists, form stable), and Iñaki Williams (2 goals, 4 assists, form stable) are crucial.
Goalkeepers
Jan Oblak is in goal for Atlético Madrid, keeping 12 clean sheets in 27 season appearances. For Athletic Club, Unai Simón is the goalkeeper, achieving 6 clean sheets in 32 season appearances.
Influences
Atlético Madrid benefits from a significant home advantage, with an average of 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded in home games. The Riyadh Air Metropolitano sees an average of 3.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches.