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La Liga

Villarreal - Celta de Vigo

04/26/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Villarreal
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Celta de Vigo
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
VILCDV

Villarreal

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Tajon Buchanan not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Sergi Cardona on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Santiago Mouriño not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Celta de Vigo

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.21
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.21
Ferran JutglĂ  on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
Javi Rueda on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Villarreal with Dani Parejo: 8.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Villarreal: 81% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Celta de Vigo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Celta de Vigo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

30%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Villarreal is strong at home, scoring an average of 1.79 home goals per game, with the mathematical analysis predicting a home win with 44% probability
  • Celta de Vigo is on a negative run of form with four consecutive losses and declining goal production of 0.8 compared to a season average of 1.5
  • The Estadio de la CerĂĄmica is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game and a 100% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent matches there, the model predicts 71% for over 1.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Villarreal has a short recovery period of only 3 days since their last match
  • Celta de Vigo averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Celta de Vigo's goal production is currently stagnating, with a season average of 1.5, while current form shows 0.8
Overview

Villarreal (3rd place, 62 points) hosts Celta de Vigo (6th place, 44 points) at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica. The La Liga match is scheduled for April 26, 2026, 9:00 PM. Villarreal is fighting for international qualification spots, while Celta de Vigo aims for a European berth.

Form

Villarreal has shown mixed form in their last five matches with DWLWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Their last game was a 1:1 away draw against Real Oviedo. Celta de Vigo is in a difficult phase with WLLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses). Their last match ended in a 0:1 away loss against FC Barcelona. Celta de Vigo has four consecutive losses.

Statistics

Villarreal has averaged 1.78 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.16 goals. At home, the team is offensively strong (avg. 1.79 goals) and defensively stable (avg. 0.68 goals conceded). Celta de Vigo has scored 1.38 goals per game across the season and conceded 1.28 goals. Away from home, they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded. The Estadio de la CerĂĄmica sees an average of 3.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in all 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the last five direct encounters, the record is even: Villarreal and Celta de Vigo each won two matches, with one ending in a draw. The last meeting on August 31, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw. Overall, Villarreal scored 10 goals and Celta de Vigo scored 12 goals in these matches.

Key Players

For Villarreal, Georges Mikautadze with 9 goals and 5 assists, Alberto Moleiro with 9 goals and 4 assists, and Gerard Moreno with 8 goals are important attacking players. Nicolas Pépé shows stable form with 2 goals in the last 5 games. Not nominated for the starting lineup are Tajon Buchanan (6G/1A), Sergi Cardona (1G/3A), and Santiago Mouriño (1G/2A). For Celta de Vigo, Borja Iglesias is the top scorer of the season with 11 goals and 2 assists. Hugo Álvarez contributed 3 goals and 1 assist, and Ilaix Moriba 1 goal and 2 assists. Not nominated are Ferran Jutglà (7G/2A) and Javi Rueda (2G/4A).

Goalkeepers

In goal for Villarreal is Arnau Tenas, who recorded 8 clean sheets this season. For Celta de Vigo, Ionuț Radu guards the goal, also achieving 8 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Villarreal shows a clear home advantage, as they score an average of 1.79 home goals and concede only 0.68 goals. The Estadio de la CerĂĄmica is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals per match. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 100% of the last 5 matches at the stadium.

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